Hurricane Earl Western Atlantic

[Andrew]

I honestly believe that the eastern Caribbean and Florida will need to keep a close watch on this system. Earl continues on a western track and continues to not intensify much. That is what I am concerned about because the weakness created by Danielle will not be felt Earl if it continues to stay this far south and weak. The models continue to shift west and I do not see this stopping anytime soon. So it should be interesting to watch Earl and see where it goes.

[sau27]

I honestly believe that the eastern Caribbean and Florida will need to keep a close watch on this system. Earl continues on a western track and continues to not intensify much. That is what I am concerned about because the weakness created by Danielle will not be felt Earl if it continues to stay this far south and weak. The models continue to shift west and I do not see this stopping anytime soon. So it should be interesting to watch Earl and see where it goes.

This is what I have been wondering about with Earl. It cant seem to get it self very well organized. Every few hours it seems like the center pops out from under the convection. If it cant stack itself it wont get pulled by the higher level steering currents. I haven't seen it in the discussions but it seems like Earl is behind schedule with its strengthening which I also believe will send it farther west before it gets pulled north.

[Ptarmigan]

Recon found the central pressure of Earl to be at 983 millibars, which is quite low for a tropical storm. Must be in an area of lower ambient pressure.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... uct=URNT15

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282349
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE PUERTO RICO ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

[Andrew]

The LLC has tucked back under the convection and might be even farther south now where all the strong convection is. It is still heading west at a steady clip and if this keeps up it will get to the islands by tomorrow. The models since the beginning have been indicating a turn to the north but that has yet to happen at all. With the speed of this storm it could really throw off the models. Hopefully the new data that will be introduced to the models during the 00z run will help determine how strong the ridge is and how much of a curve this storm will take.

[srainhoutx]

Andrew mentioned data. RECON has a awful lot of assets scheduled for Earl...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 28 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EARL
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 30/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0307A EARL
C. 29/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 30/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0407A EARL
C. 29/2230Z
D. 17.8N 60.0W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 30/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0507A EARL
C. 30/1045Z
D. 18.7N 62.0W
E. 30/1130Z TO 30/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS:
A. NOAA P-3'S WILL CONTINUE A SERIES OF RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO EARL. TAKEOFFS AT 29/0800Z,
29/2000Z AND 30/0800Z. FLOWN AT 12,000 FT.
B. NASA DC-8 WILL DO RESEARCH INTO EARL DEPARTING
TISX AT 29/1400Z. FLIGHT LVL 32,000 TO 39,000 FT.

[Andrew]

Yea srain should really help with the models tonight especially with the ridge to the north. I can't wait for the runs to come out.

[srainhoutx]

It will probably take several cycles of data input from missions to settle the GFS down. There have been some interesting runs to say the least over the past couple of days. With that said, the 12Z seemed to have the right 'idea' today regarding the track.

[Andrew]

It will probably take several cycles of data input from missions to settle the GFS down. There have been some interesting runs to say the least over the past couple of days. With that said, the 12Z seemed to have the right 'idea' today regarding the track.

Yea prob so but hopefully we should get a better idea of what is going to happen. Looks pretty good right now:

[Andrew]

FWIW Nam is farther west and south in 42hours:

[srainhoutx]

Alright night crew. It's been a while and we have stuff to follow. Have fun and enjoy the new platform...

[wxman57]

One good thing about Earl with respect to the NE Caribbean islands is that most of the strong wind will be north of the track, including all the hurricane-force winds, as it passes. So most likely, the BVI will be brushed by TS winds tomorrow night. Beyond then, a recurve between the U.S. and Bermuda is most likely.

Time for bed.

[Andrew]

One good thing about Earl with respect to the NE Caribbean islands is that most of the strong wind will be north of the track, including all the hurricane-force winds, as it passes. So most likely, the BVI will be brushed by TS winds tomorrow night. Beyond then, a recurve between the U.S. and Bermuda is most likely.

Time for bed.

Even though it is the NAM, it respectfully disagrees with your statement of a re-curve. Will be extremly interesting what the other models show.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290303
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL COULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...NEAR THE CENTER OF EARL.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[unome]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1232.shtml



000
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

Tough day in the Islands...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 291457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

EARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A
DEVELOPING CDO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF
64 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE
EARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS
SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT
EARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL
AND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD
THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

PERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS
NOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.2N 58.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.6N 60.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.3W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.2N 69.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 37.0N 71.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[Ptarmigan]

I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

[svrwx0503]

A trough of low pressure currently forecast to move off the east coast Friday will be the main determinant to whether or not Earl makes landfall on the US east coast. Being about 5 days out, models are going to be struggling with strength and timing of that system. A stronger and faster moving trough will likely pick up Earl and re-curve him out to sea just in time to avoid a major east coast landfall; however, as we all know, it is quite possible that the trough could be weaker than currently forecast or move slower and that would be very bad news...especially from North Carolina and points northward up the east coast. NWS Upton (NYC Weather Service) already is keeping a close eye on the storm. Below is a snippet from their AFD...

UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN THE LONG TERM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON...AS
MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND AS
A RESULT HOW THEY HANDLE EARL. THE 12Z/28 ECMWF IS A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION AND WAS FOLLOWED IN THE EXTENDED - THIS IS ALSO THE
OPTION SELECTED BY HPC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z/29 ECMWF
IS A CLEAR OUTLIER TO THE LEFT (CLOSER TO THE COAST) WITH EARL.

BASED ON 12Z/28 ECMWF WOULD EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A 500 HPA TROUGH CROSSING
THE AREA. WITH THE CORE OF THE DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE
NORTH...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH ITS
PASSAGE. FOR NOW GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY -
CONSISTENT WITH A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND...LOWS NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW...WITH A COOLER AIRMASS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ON
SATURDAY...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 70S...WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...SO
EXPECT CHANGES...POSSIBLY QUITE SIGNIFICANT...AS TIME PROGRESSES.

SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD BRING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

[wxman57]

I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

What that forecast doesn't quite show yet is the sharp trof nearing the East U.S. Coast by the time Earl moves north of 35N. That should result in a NNE-NE turn between days 4-5.