Looking ahead, based upon what I’m seeing from the EFS & GEFS ensembles, the chances of lower pressures occurring in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Gulf Coast States appear to continue through the end of June. I’m making this assumption based upon the higher height anomalies depicted to occur...

Bullseyes come and go, but there's going to be some rain on the dirty side of an open COC. We shall see where and how much. It's very hard to predict at the granular level.

There will be rain. Diffuse system FTW. Locations and amounts can and will change. https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_aifs/2024061512/252/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2024061512/240/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models...

Let the strawberry lemonade pour!

I'd gladly take this rain action.

ICON is bringing it. We need another couple of days to have clarity with HRRR, NAM, other mesos but tropical gulf air is headed our way.



Your mileage may vary.

NAM is bringing the flume of GoM moisture in by Monday and Tuesday. There will be abundant chances of rain. When, where, and how much is to be seen.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2024 9:50 am

tireman4 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 14, 2024 9:18 am Ryan Maue 06 14 24

Typical June slopfest system. Almost all the rain hundreds of miles away from the center.

Just the way I like it. We're on the dirty, rainy side.

From Matt Lanza Monday & Tuesday We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it’s a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical...

06Z EPS is trended more towards the 00z operational run with a split in ensembles over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a vort max could form and detach from the monsoonal trough, rotating across the Northern Yucatan but I remain hesitant to fully latch onto that so...

Houston and possibly CLL will and up on the "dirty" side of whatever develops, so the 40% chances of rain are reasonable. Likely weak and widespread. We won't know...until we know. Having said that, Euro and GFS are in agreement. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/20240614...

0.6 inches of rain out of our popcorn cell Wednesday. Hopefully, we can hang on now until rain next week. Mets are becoming more confident about rain next week. NOAA at 40% for multiple days. Weather app around 70% Euro-AI and GFS have the highest confidence of a system moving in. Pas Bon is right i...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:35 pm I’ll just leave this here:

A potential setup for easterlies.

We're seeing a nice little popcorn shower. Almost 2 inch/hr stuff. I'll take 10-15 minutes of this!

Weaksauce shower heading Houston's way. We had maybe a tenth of an inch. Better than nothing. It's cloudy and not hot - the way I like summers in SETX.

Euro, GFS, CMC all bring 1-2 weak tropical systems into the Western Gulf next week.

Euro AI is enjoying itself far too much...

Dang it, I see a Lucy gap opening up.

^That's a long way out for a moderate heavy rain CPC prediction. Confidence of getting gyred must be pretty high. In the meantime, we have a semi-broken line of showers meandering SE. C'mon keep our sprinklers off tonight (otherwise I'll have no choice but to run them)! https://radar.weather.gov/rid...

473 FXUS64 KHGX 111158 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 658 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 It is full out summer here in Southeast Texas, in pretty much all the ways. We`ve got hot and humid co...

473 FXUS64 KHGX 111158 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 658 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 It is full out summer here in Southeast Texas, in pretty much all the ways. We`ve got hot and humid co...