Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 2:07 pm This is definitely only Round 1.....the train is loading up again near Big Bend and points west. Here we go, y'all.....

Future cast shows a line of shower that crosses Texas N/S completely by 8 pm and approaching the Hill Country. Crazy.

It's pretty fierce down in Houston.
Temp: 72.5°F
DP: 65°F
Wind: NE 25 mph
Sunny

Up here in CLL. Feels good before the next round.

lol That was one way to lower the DP. 66°F DP with that outflow and we still have 25-35 mph winds on the backside of the line of showers.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 12:03 pm From Matt Lanza..
Reports from Huntsville anyone? Radar showing 100 mph winds down to 8,500 feet, but usually that translates to a good bit lower at the surface.

Huge core hail center over Huntsville. It looks VERY dark to our east.

A new update from the SPC. spcd1cat.us_sc (3).png Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of ...

Rip76 wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 11:35 am Yes, this is coming through much quicker than I first thought.

Yes. Multiple hail cores are forming. It *could* be a rough afternoon for SETX.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 11:28 am Already 92°F here with a heat index of 107°F.

DP 78°.

I think even the coastal areas should get prepared. We'll see.

What will this oncoming set of showers look like when it hits this very rich environment later today... With high CAPE and DPs of 78°F, and an outflow snowplowing at 55 mph be prepared for uplift and severe weather. Get prepared. TBH, this outperformed my expectation of arrival, which I thought wou...

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 10:49 am The CAPE levels for coastal SE Texas today are mind-blowing for this late in May.
far greater than 5,000 across the board.

The outflow is charging at 55 mph. We had a violent arrival with 50 mph gusts just a moment ago. Nature is angry.

Get Prepared now Houston.

Lots of instability in the air. NWS has increased rain chance to 50-60% over the next few days, beginning with this evening. The Ensembles and NWS are more confident than the Mesos for rain. Regardless, it appears we're in for a "cooler" but more unstable weather pattern for the remainder ...

Definite Maybe.

Temp: 96°F DP: 79°F HI: 114°F 1994 Chicago heat wave level DPs and Heat Indexes over the last few days. Hopefully relief begins after tomorrow. Wed - Sunday progged in the upper 80s with lower dewpoints. TG. Maybe sooner? Bring it... https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KGRK_loop.gif?refreshed=1...

What’s up with all the haze outside? Smoke coming from wildfires in Mexico or something? There’s not even any sun out. Just a bunch of overcast skies and haze around. We've had haze for 10 days+. Initially there was an inversion layer and the humid air was trapped and not able to rise. Looks like a...

Models are beginning to look better for some rain further south. The GFS and CMC both look a little better now compared to previous runs and the 12z HRRR has a pretty potent looking MCS moving through early Wednesday morning. I'm not seeing a big trend (just posted the QPF), but hope you are right!

The 12z HRRR provides some hope of rain for SETX (and possibly severe weather) on Tuesday.



NAM halts the festivities at Hwy 1*5. We'll see.

See the NW Flow, Be the flow. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 628 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 10 PM tonight for ...

No real change in the models, Mesos as NW flow this week will bring in impulses and some rain - we could use a bit.. Canadian is probably most favorable to the southern tier of the region, except the coast. 40-50% chance of rain Tuesday night - Saturday in CLL. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analys...

?? The Mesos have been gawdawful. The Ensembles agree long term. More of the same until further notice with lower DPs...the good news is that there will be a 30-40% chance of rain from Tuesday onward. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024052618/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_42.png https://...

Most of the rain for the next 10-14 days still looks like more north of Hwy 79 or 1*5:

NWS has upped our rain chances to 40% beginning Tuesday night Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 637 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 It`s been a pretty "rinse and repea...