Unfortunately, the mid to long range 00Z GFS run continues with the idea that our hottest stretch of the year will be the last week or so of August. It depicts the heat ridge settling in over the Central & Southern Plains while circulating very dry air into our region from the northeast. Let the...

The heat is made worse probably as a result of all of those tropical systems the model has going north along the east coast. Not really, because if you analyze the profiles upstream from SETX, or to the northeast of our region (the winds in the lower and mid-levels are coming from the NE on our sou...

I'm not sure what's up with this latest 18Z GFS run but it is forecasting some of the hottest temperatures SE TX has seen all year the final week of August. Very disturbing forecast even if it's incorrect, considering just how brutal this summer has been to us. I'm just glad this GFS forecast is way...

Just depressing - Lindner Sometimes, I do think the models overextend patterns/have biases. The +PDO/El Nino base states are supposedly already coming in based on what the S2K guys state: if that really is true, the the depictions of stuck ridging over Texas cannot be accurate. If you’re referring ...

For those worried about rainfall prospects, this afternoon’s GFS 18Z run comes to the rescue and brings SE Texas some relief from the heat in 336 hours…

I just noticed the 90-Day SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has dropped down to -7.05 as of today. With this 90-Day value, we should be officially within El Niño range now.

482 FXUS64 KHGX 140922 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 422 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 The Flood Watch has been expanded northe...

What jumps out at me with some of the latest mesoscale models forecasted 48hr QPF totals is the low accumulations over Central TX, South Central TX, and The TX Big Bend areas…The same areas that were forecasted to receive some fairly healthy rainfall amounts earlier in the week and just a day or two...

Holy -SOI! 4 days in a row with -20 or lower values! 90-Day is now negative. I think once the Southern Oscillation Index 90 Day Value drops down to around -7.0 and below then we will officially have an El Niño. My only long term concern is a few of the long range climate models have ENSO values dro...

Though chances are currently low, we may need to keep one eye on tomorrow afternoon for the chance of isolated strong storms. The HRRR 00Z forecast soundings are depicting a lot of a CAPE (Surface, Mixed Layer, & Most Unstable) over the area on Monday afternoon between 11 am and 4 pm before a ca...

A39D0A98-812C-49E0-B321-A0C03993A52A.png Mesoscale Discussion 0526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Middle/Upper Texas Coastal Plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151912Z - 152045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...

SOI index is spiking, but it could be contaminated by Tropical Low 23U. Keep in mind those Daily Contributions values are not the SOI. Just focus on the SOI monthly and 90 Day values. We’re still doing fine with a monthly value at -3.28 which is well within the neutral range. There will be occasion...

https://twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1640102429961101314?s=20 I’ve said this 100x on this forum. Are you able to embed that Tweet on the forum for everyone who don’t have a Twitter account so they can see exactly what he is expressing in regards to the lack of activity over our area despite the favor...

12.11.2022 - 2145 - POST.png I made the attached post on December 11th regarding my concern about the severe weather possibilities as winter wrapped up and spring began. My thinking hasn't changed as of this time. In fact, I probably should have pushed the timeline up considering the tornadic storm...

On January 9, 2012, we had a high precipitation supercell churn along the I-59 corridor towards the NE producing a few tornado reports and widespread street flooding through Fort Bend and Harris County including the Houston Metro Area.

I know all of the attention will be on the possibility of cold weather and frozen precipitation over the next few weeks over the state. But I just wanted to point out how we've had some close calls with severe weather/tornado potential here in SE Texas over the past several weeks. Tuesday appears y...

I know all of the attention will be on the possibility of cold weather and frozen precipitation over the next few weeks over the state. But I just wanted to point out how we've had some close calls with severe weather/tornado potential here in SE Texas over the past several weeks. Tuesday appears ye...

I put this in the December Thread: In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option i...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:51 am

don wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:46 am 12Z models have come in less progressive and more south with the storm system.Friday now looks to be a washout also due to the slower movement.Here are some QPF amounts from some of the 12z models.

The -NAO is working its magic.

So is the SOI…the lowest I’ve seen all year.