CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now... COD-NEXRAD-HGX (1).png I think this poorly modeled convection I alluded to last night contaminated the warm sector under the Moderate Risk earlier than...

Yeah according to Pat Calvin this was rated as an EF-1 Tornado. This was approximately 3 miles south of my house…

Tornado confirmed in Katy last night…


https://x.com/pcavlin/status/1778097997785526384

Yeah hands down this is the most intense rainfall I’ve experienced since Hurricane Harvey and the April 2016 Tax Day Flood. The water came up past the mailbox to the side walk…

CAM's or Short-term models didn't do a good job at all with initializing these severe thunderstorms off to the northeast of the Houston area now...

It’s an absolutely beautiful morning outside with clear skies, low humidity and temperatures in the 60’s. It would be a perfect day for a Total Solar Eclipse.

What are you talking about? No one including the local media was ever forecasting a February 2021 repeat.The only disagreement we had was that the mesoscale models would end up more accurate than the globals when it comes to temps and precip. Which they were. You seem to want to disagree with us, j...

The forecast hasn't changed much in CLL. 40% chance of wintry stuff on MLK Day. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens for 2-3 days. Light ice storm here. NAM with an ice/sleet event. Maybe sleet/snow from Hearne to Marshall? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2024011212/namconus...

One thing that has caught my attention about Monday's potential is that the 06Z HRRR has increased MLCAPE during the late morning hours across SETX as compared to its 00Z Run. It may not make a big difference when all is said and done but it is a short-term trend that needs to be monitored through t...

Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half of 2024. But there’s still ple...

Has El Nino peaked yet or not? Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half...

Hey everyone! It has been a while, but I am back! The fall semester is over and I am officially 3 semesters away from earning my bachelor's degree in meteorology now! Glad to see that the weather pattern has finally become more progressive for the South. The drought was absolutely horrible for area...

That's a lot of pure streamwise vorticity in that forecasted 00Z NAM 3K Hodograph

The 9/8 00Z HRRR sounding for 7:00pm shows some elevated CAPE which may lead to some isolated severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and a few microbursts across the area if the cap can be broken during peak heating hours on Friday evening…

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE...AND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thun...

A little off topic. Hurricane Lee is now a Category 5 hurricane. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/080251.shtml 373 WTNT33 KNHC 080251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 ...LEE BECOMES A CA...

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING... SUMM...

Unfortunately, the mid to long range 00Z GFS run continues with the idea that our hottest stretch of the year will be the last week or so of August. It depicts the heat ridge settling in over the Central & Southern Plains while circulating very dry air into our region from the northeast. Let th...

Southern California has a lot going on right now...