Search found 28 matches

by Big O
Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:25 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead
Replies: 760
Views: 330898

Re: December Weather - What can we expect?

Excellent day yesterday! A record 83 degrees made for great biking weather. We rode 45 miles around the city. Was only slightly cool when the sun went behind the clouds a few times. Latest GFS doesn't indicate much in the way of a front Tuesday any more, and nice warm weather next weekend too. Sssh...
by Big O
Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead
Replies: 760
Views: 330898

Re: December Weather - What can we expect?

I shared this in another forum, but thought that reposting it in this thread was appropriate: "I asked Fred Schmude with Impact Weather the following questions this morning. His answers provide promise for those of us who really like winter weather. See below: Q: What would the various teleconn...
by Big O
Wed Jan 25, 2012 9:14 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January: Tornado Watch/ Slight Risk/ 1/25 With Heavy Ra

The 1/25 0z European teleconnection index forecast is interesting. It show a -NAO, -AO, and positive PNA in the longer term. Prior runs had only shown a negative NAO and negative AO, with a negative PNA. The change to a positive PNA means that a west coast ridge may set up, with a trough across the ...
by Big O
Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:48 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January: Slight Risk Central TX 1/24-25 /Storms & Heavy

With respect to longer range, the models are all over the place with respect to the teleconnection indices. I tend to side with the European, which at 0z has a slightly negative NAO, slightly negative AO, and negative EPO at days 8-10. What we need is a +PNA to get things going, but I see nothing to...
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 4:21 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

I mentioned this ~5 pages back, but energy sector mets are the best paid, so I'd assume among the best, and natural gas futures are down near $2.30... My co-worker is buying natural gas futures now. I assume this means he thinks that cold air is lurking on the horizon, but I could be wrong. I have ...
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:17 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

Here's a different look:

Image
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

12z GFS Ensemble Mean at 384h sure is appetizing to cold-weather lovers; McFarland Signature anyone:

Image
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:41 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

To add some fuel to the fire (or should I say "ice"), take a gander at the possibilities alluded to by David Tolleris with Wxrisk.com: http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/big-berth ... t-sisters/ I like this part: As you can see from the image it is readily apparent that the NAO and AO have onl...
by Big O
Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:20 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

Interesting blog post this morning from Chronicle science writer Eric Berger. He quotes ImpactWeather's Fred Schmude who says winter *may* make a real appearance in early February. Read on ... http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/01/a-mild-winter-so-far-will-we-escape-arctic-blasts-this-year/ To add s...
by Big O
Wed Jan 18, 2012 3:48 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

12z European at 240h showing a developing ridge/block into Alaska: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15/01181212zeuropean240h.gif This may cause Wxman 57 some "concern." I saw that, but what the image doesn't show you is what's coming in from the west. I'm looking at a hemispheric 500m...
by Big O
Wed Jan 18, 2012 2:08 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

Now, we just need a +PNA/-EPO signal, and we may be in business. ;)
by Big O
Wed Jan 18, 2012 2:02 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January:Tracking A Storm Threat 1/23-25/Severe Wx Possib

12z European at 240h showing a developing ridge/block into Alaska:

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15 ... an240h.gif

This may cause Wxman 57 some "concern."
by Big O
Tue Jan 17, 2012 1:47 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

I know it is a long way off, but long-range GFS ensemble continues to paint a very interesting picture and should definitely raise an eyebrow or two. ;)

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/85 ... s2212.png/
by Big O
Mon Jan 16, 2012 4:20 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: January: Warming Up With Showers/Cold Front Tuesday

JB tweets:

"GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term."

Let's hope he is right this time. :D ;)
by Big O
Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: Texas: January Olympic Trails Marathon Forecast 1-14

I attended (telephonically) the Impact Webinar Winter Update this morning and had a question that wasn't answered during the on-air portion of the webinar. However, the meteorologist making the presentation answered my question via e-mail just now. I share the question and answer for the sake of tho...
by Big O
Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: Texas: January Olympic Trails Marathon Forecast 1-14

Steve, long-range European is atrocious. :x
by Big O
Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:06 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month
Replies: 1330
Views: 577865

Re: Texas:January 8-10:Winter Wx W/Rain-Storms & Heavy Rainf

Some mets and well thought of amateurs on another message board are suggesting that the only winner (at least for the foreseeable future) of the -WPO, -AO will be Canada. While there is cross-polar flow, they argue that there is no mechanism to dislodge that air into the southern Plains, or much of ...
by Big O
Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion
Replies: 3608
Views: 1779402

Re: February Weather. Snow/Sleet/Ice/Winter Storm Warning

Steve (srain), I am from the McAllen/Brownsville area, but my parents live just NW of CRP. We are getting freezing rain/sleet in the lower valley (i.e., Harlingen/Brownsville). I have gotten occassional frozen drizzle in the McAllen area. My parents have not seen anything, but they are working indoo...
by Big O
Wed Feb 02, 2011 4:35 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion
Replies: 3608
Views: 1779402

Re: February Weather. Arctic Blast/Snow/Ice/Winter Storm Wa

National Weather Service out of BRO issued a Winter Storm Watch for the RGV earlier today. Now they have dropped our chance of seeing wintry precipitation from 50% to 30% and don't mention any accumulations. What am I missing? :? :?: :cry: It seems like there is a battle of sorts shaping up between ...
by Big O
Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:13 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion
Replies: 3608
Views: 1779402

Re: February Weather. Arctic Blast/Snow/Ice/Winter Storm Wa

Jeff, thanks for the update. I am from McAllen and have family in League City/Webster. Is McAllen looking at any accumulating snowfall, and, if so, how much?

What type and amounts of precipitation can people in League City/Webster expect?

Thanks in advance.