The end of the 12z FV3 looks very nice!!! Best look I’ve seen on any model this whole winter. Only problem is that it’s in fantasy land, but it would point towards the middle of the month for a January cool down that so many people have been talking about.

The trends are nice on the models. 12z GFS trended even more in our favor. The GFS shows temps in the mid to upper 30’s across SETX while the precip is going on. The GFS has a warm bias though and is usually a good 5+ degrees too warm. Thursday is looking wet now too on the GFS.

Trying to interpret the above. So, the SSW event has yet to take place and the impacts really won't be known until it does and whether it reaches the surface. Also, a positive PNA and -AO would mean a colder eastern half of the country and warmer in the west. The influences of the SSW event could b...

In almost every situation such as this....what have we seen with temps? Answer...models don’t handle shallow air so if it’s calling for a close call now by 2-4 degrees...I’m gonna bet on the past that temps are undercooked! As far as I can remember with winter weather events here in southeast TX, a...

don wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:32 pm FV3 looks like a close call with temps in the low to mid 30's as the precip ends fwiw

Yep

0z GFS has a tad bit more moisture to work with for next Wednesday. We’ll see what the FV3 and Euro have to say soon.

With the way things are looking right now for SETX, it looks like moisture will be limited and temps will be 5-10 degrees too warm for any frozen precip. Greatest chance right now is the NE quadrant of the state. There’s still plenty of time though for things to change in our favor.

CRASHWX wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:53 am Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

harp wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:03 pm GFS still not showing any big arctic dump through January 12th. Somewhat discouraging.

I don’t give much credence to the old GFS. The new GFS FV3 and the Euro are the way to go these days.

don wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:26 pm 18z GFS is now onboard also

I want to see some of this energy further west..bulk of it looks to be over Louisiana and Mississippi on the models right now.

Even the old GFS is coming around to the idea of a winter storm next week.

Picked up 2.15” yesterday and this morning and we were only supposed to get about 3/4”. Definitely a nice surprise! I would say the NAM 3km model did the best job.

harp wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:22 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:17 pm A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

JB is not buying the blowtorch theory.

If the ao, nao, & epo can all go negative and stay there then I’m not gonna be worried about any torch, that’s for sure lol

A lot of the models are wanting to torch the country after next weeks cold snap.

Definitely storming here in Wharton County much worse than I thought it would. A nice surprise. Should end up with close to 2” when all is said and done!

Winds have been near tropical storm force at times today across our Region. It has certainly created problems for air travel throughout the afternoon and I saw a report of a couple of injuries on a flight inbound to Austin earlier this evening. That squall line to our West means business this eveni...

Doesn’t really look like much for my area around Wharton and El Campo this time around. As usual, most of the fun stuff looks to be north of me.

Huge differences on the 12km NAM vs the 3km

The main thing I keep seeing on the models that I’m not liking is that these troughs/lows from the southwest keep kicking out strongly northeast through the panhandle/central plains instead of cutting through the central or southern part of Texas.

harp wrote: ↑Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:53 pm Thanks. He hasn't done an update today the last time I looked.

He did his daily update a few hours ago. It’s there because I just watched it.