Cpv17 Personally I think the GFS is better with seeing development, and the euro is better with 500 mb height pattern and potential paths that a storm may take, at least thats how it feels like its been the last few seasons with these two models I just go by the ensembles. I don’t really pay much a...

My go to model for possible genesis is the EPS. The GEFS is too aggressive imo.

don wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 2:36 pm I picked up over 8 inches for the month of May! And some areas of Harris county have received 10-14 inches of rain for May! Global models are already showing a decent tropical wave in the Gulf around the 10th, something to watch.

I got about 2.50” in May altogether. Could’ve been worse, I guess.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 2:10 pm Cpv17 good! We need a quiet stretch, well except for you lol, texas has had enough for a while

It needs to rain the RGV, Hill Country, and west Texas.

Ended up getting 1.80” last week of some much needed rain! One more semi-active day today before a boring weather pattern sets back in for much of the week.

I think the 3rd week of June is in when things could start to get interesting.

Had some pretty decent size tree branches down in the yard this morning. I’m guessing the wind must’ve been 50-60mph judging by the branches that were down. Didn’t get much rain again unfortunately. Just .80” but I’ll take it. I think we had some hail too, but honestly I’m not sure because I was sti...

Had the same issue. Ruined the Willie Nelson birthday showing. I’m gonna look for a recorded option to stream. I migrated to streaming and YTTV a few years ago and never looked back or worried about the weather again. I'm waiting for fiber. I have the fastest plan I can get right now and if we have...

The line is weakening it looks like but the northern burbs of Houston should still get something.

Montgomery area is getting a flood!

Unfortunately I don’t see much rain on the models in my area. Thank goodness I got almost an inch yesterday.

I got .90” today. I have nothing to complain about lol biggest rain I’ve had in over a month.

Looks like we could see some scattered popups starting late this afternoon into the evening hours. Not seeing anything widespread today.

Still dry as a bone at my place. Pretty much crickets again today.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 1:15 pm Matt Lanza
Rain rates up I-45 toward The Woodlands are running about 3-4" per hour. Flash flooding is likely to commence soon in typical spots.

That’s a lot don’t get me wrong, but 3-4” hr rainfall rates aren’t really that crazy. I’ve had that in half an hour before.

Jason is about to get clocked.

Already 92°F here with a heat index of 107°F.

DP 78°.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 10:49 am The CAPE levels for coastal SE Texas today are mind-blowing for this late in May.
far greater than 5,000 across the board.

Damn, that’s pretty impressive. Lots of fuel out there.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 10:12 am Are we thinking later in the afternoon near commute time, or late this evening?

Just go look at the mesoscale models. That’s what I do.

It's extremely rare to see Surface CAPE values exceeding 8,000 J/kg anywhere across the country, any time of the year, let alone over portions of SE Texas. Yet earlier this evening between 2100Z & 2300Z, that's exactly what we saw... SPC MAP - SURFACE CAPE - 5.27.2024 - 2100.png SPC MAP - SURFA...