The Loveland, OK tornado has a chance to be an EF5 from what I’m hearing.

The mesoscale models are beginning to look very interesting.

Massive wedge just north of Wichita Falls.. wow! Crazy hook on radar and a very crazy storm motion.

Looks like the same places that got rain a couple days ago are gonna get it again tomorrow night into early Thursday.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2024 2:22 pm We’re in the “slight risk” for excessive heat may 8th-10th

Not only that but average to below normal rain chances for the first 10 days or so of May. I suspect with ridging overhead, the SST’s in the Gulf of Mexico are about to skyrocket.

The 0z HRRR is looking interesting towards the end of its run.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2024 5:44 pm Sucks that it's going to take something tropical to get coastal areas any rain.

I’m afraid that’s what it’s gonna take.

Well I thought it looked promising for some rain to back build west and southwest overnight. So much for that.

Kinda looks like things might get a little more interesting out my way than what I was thinking. Hmmm, going to be an interesting next few hours it looks like.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2024 12:38 am Rainfall totals

Those are probably way underdone if those are radar estimated. You can probably tack on another 1-3” from what that’s showing.

This puppy is rippin.' And expanding south. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/sp/08/20241200201_GOES16-ABI-sp-08-2400x2400.jpg https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=sp&band=08&length=24 Yawn. West of I145 it's all dark purple. Why are we a...

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2024 5:20 pm I’m feeling like I will miss out on rain in League City.

It doesn’t look like much for areas south of I-10.

There may be some strong thunderstorms late tonight for areas along and east of I-45 .As the storm clusters to the north eventually form into a MCS and moves southeast with the frontal boundary. It's MCS season in the southern plains...😉 Screenshot 2024-04-28 at 16-17-00 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weath...

It’s too windy and too overcast for anything to really get going. This isn’t the kind of conditions you need for a severe weather outbreak.

I’m just hoping we don’t have to wait till the tropics heat up to get any rain. That could be awhile.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2024 10:16 am Keep building south.

Tomorrow might be a better chance for us southerners.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2024 8:31 am Really hoping the Euro is right. The GFS shafts me again.

Yeah, I love how the rain just stops right at I-10 on the GFS.

The CMC looks good now for areas north of I-10. The GFS still has mostly everything north of us. We’ll see what the Euro says next.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 8:11 am Besides the one rogue thunderstorm a few weeks ago, it's been a bone dry spring here.

Pretty big difference in the models right now. Euro is a soaker and the GFS and CMC are pretty much crickets.

Models are trending weaker with ridging over Mexico & the Gulf, and are now showing more precip in SE Texas next week than earlier runs.This may cause the subtropical jet to orientate further south in the state.Allowing disturbances to move over Central & East/Southeast Texas next week.We'l...