harp wrote: ↑Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:11 pm JB seems pretty confident.

He has been on it for couple of weeks...every since he saw the storms go off in the Indian Ocean

In the first pic you see the analog years at the top...it’s just showing when you have all the same atmospheric indicators lining up like the MJO moving through phase 6-7-8 and neg AO and pos PNA that is the way the Temps line up. In other words you are looking at all of those years lining up behind...

Analog years in the Same Years / GFS snow cove

Go look at Joe Bastardi on weatherbell.com scroll down click on his mug and let his videos load and watch Sat update it’s veru detailed

So many moving parts globally the models are have a tough time locking in on a solution. I think maybe mathematical models have issues when complex changes occur...I think maybe one has to look at the past and see the future...models may not lock and load till a week out. Time will tell

JB Saturday report was pretty hard nosed on cold coming

Cold is coming and it could be severe...JMO...been looking at several sites and watched several forecast and all point to big changes brewing

JB very bullish on severe cold middle of country east...temp slide begains around New Years and stays cold for a while. Said blocking may lock in for remainder of winter. 8-10 degrees below normal. Snow cover starts going crazy post Christmas which will keep cold from modifying near as much...keeps ...

It may very disappear and reappear several times before the models lock into what going on in the upper dynamics

MJO forecast to move 6-7-8 Jan Feb which looking at the past sho-nuff looks cold and with an active sub jet banging away look out! I’m really interested in seeing how this pans out...Of course much is still literally up in the air! I don’t think this will be a big in face temp drop as much as a step...

Stratospheric Warming, blocking, ridging, trophs and either splitting or redevelopment of the polar vortex will take time to develop and those key things happen things will gel in the models. Till those things happen they be erratic and inconsistent. The interesting part is the fact that such a larg...

I think Jan and Feb are avg 5-7 degrees below normal with above norm precip?

What is interesting is to see the ridging build in the models over Alaska and the troph over the Southeast....blocking sets in and Bang!....it goes to deep freeze mode!

Cold signals seem to clustering to a solution that could spell Burrrr! Active sub jet could make it a very interesting January!

Good ole’ Joe B. I’ll add my $.02. I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves. There is no question he is ...

Of course many don’t like him because he represents a conservative position on climate. And I am not saying this applies anyone in specific just conversation

Just example on Joe...nailed Harvey, Sandy, Katrina, about every snow event in our area and did all well in advance...just my opinion he is legit but he does have pretty impressive track record and certainly is paid well by likes of some very large clients who put a tremendous amount of trust in his...

Yes I watch joe’s free daily videos and Saturday report. I usually plan my vacations around his game plan. Be interesting to see if his theory pans out on the cold showing up by Christmas and going gang busters January and February

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifi...