Search found 266 matches
- Thu Jun 09, 2022 12:47 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Long range model discussion
- Replies: 625
- Views: 114839
Re: Long range model discussion
Todays GFS 12 z now NOLA with a retrograde west and heavy rain all the way back to H-town…way out and will change many times
- Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:44 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Hurricane Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Next point where it crosses Cuba looks to be 22.5 N 83.5 W but the movement is looking west of that point…am I just misinterpreting the satellite run?
- Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:39 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Hurricane Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Not sure how its gonna hit next plotted point
- Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:37 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Hurricane Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Sure looks like center os rolling way more west than north
- Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:16 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Tracking TS Ida/Northern Gulf Coast Threat
Is it me or am I reaching….that trough in the mid-west is not digging southeast it is now running east northeast and the ridge is seemingly holding much farther west than expected…am I looking at this wrong. Wondering if the west biased models are seeing something?
- Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:23 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Tracking TD 9/Gulf Coast Threat
Still dont think the models are done moving significantly…now predicted faster forward motion, how does that effect the timing with the ridge weakening and second does the ridge weaken as much if the mid-west trough does not dig as far south? Maybe I am chasing a rabbit down a hole?
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:20 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:02 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Am I wrong? Seems to me this whole direction thing is being controlled by three factors: 1) where the actual low forms and what longitude it moves through the the area of the Yucatán and Cuba…the farther east the more likelihood of it being effected by the combination of the mid-west trough and the ...
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:34 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Could not agree more! LolMontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:32 pm This POS can go straight into LA or Brownsville. Don't need a storm messing up the first week of CFB , and I certainly don't want power out in Summer.
I can survive below zero with no power... screw heat indices of 100 plus and no power.
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:06 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Well here is to Bastardi being wrong because I want NO PART of what he is cooking!
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 3:03 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Well if not mistaken he was pretty tight on those storms as well as Ike and Rita and Katrina. Obviously the guy likes to run his flags up but there is a reason he has a lot of big energy clients. That said I know he is not infallible by any stretch but his words should be processed…love him, like h...
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:43 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Well if not mistaken he was pretty tight on those storms as well as Ike and Rita and Katrina. Obviously the guy likes to run his flags up but there is a reason he has a lot of big energy clients. That said I know he is not infallible by any stretch but his words should be processed…love him, like hi...
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:45 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Waiting on that turn is like playing Russian roulette with a possible monster…just saying at this point one needs to take notice and start looking around and getting your thoughts and plan organized. I would not go into prep till a center forms and there is more runs like maybe Friday…JMO still thin...
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:37 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Yep…GFS clips the Yucatán and moves storm west to Lake Charles…or looks that way. I think the trend will continue west then correct to the east.
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:34 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
I figure they wont issue the cone till a center forms / closed off low pressure…depends on how quickly it gets its act together. Have not looked at early data on 12z…about too
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:24 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
If the storm splits the Yucatán and Cuba then its LA if it clips the Yucatán than I think its upper Texas LA if it it cuts the Yucatán fairly deep than its south Texas to mid Texas…obviously the further south on the Yucatán the farther south it goes in Texas and Mexico…JMO opinion or maybe gut feeling
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:17 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
Models are gonna be like a gold medalists gymnast…flipping and flopping till a center actually forms…then with hunters and noaa jet getting the upper atmosphere we will have a much better idea.
- Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:55 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
- Replies: 1693
- Views: 432064
Re: August 2021: Watching the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf
We have time…a lot to look at with this storm…right now the models are like a sniper trying to hit a target a mile away in a high wind that is constantly changing direction. JMO
- Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:46 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: June 2021:
- Replies: 1114
- Views: 294304
Re: June 2021
Again would not focus on the details....i would focus on the big picture development right now. So many things will change over the next 10 days
- Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:59 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: June 2021:
- Replies: 1114
- Views: 294304
Re: June 2021
I think what needs to be the focus is this: If development happens then the upper atmosphere flow will all make this a western Gulf to Central La. type tropical cyclone of some type and strength. But right now its still a BIG if and we certainly can not focus on direction or landfall. 5-7 days befor...