That round that just pushed through the west side had to have dropped over an inch (don’t own a rain gauge). Very heavy rain. Wonder if that plus the round this morning will have overworked the atmosphere.

Looks like somewhere between 1.5 - 2 in. for my general location. Good rumbles of thunder to go with it as well. Most recent HRRR run I saw has a nice additional round coming through in the early morning hours tomorrow. Hoping for more of the same.

And a similar one in beast mode barreling through the metroplex. No joke on yikes

Give me the rain, hold the baseball sized hail and tornadoes.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:10 pm Forecast models often change.

No doubt. Hope the mesoscales trend better for rain!

18z HRRR doesn't look promising for tomorrow. Cap looks to come into play....again.

I had "Heavy Rain" forecasted this morning, now down to "Chance Storms" at 50%, as well jasons2k.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:38 pm Why can't we get any rain here? Why is it always going to the north and east of us?

Yeah a head scratcher for sure. I’m sure there’s something about zonal flow keeping things to our north, but yeah I’m curious myself.

We had everything in place yesterday for a decent soak, and came up lame.

Don’t think we’re getting anything from that complex to the SW. Absolute bust on the rain, although a win for no hail or tornadoes.

Might be wrong, but HRRR seemed to do decent snuffing out the cap over my area on the west side. If that was the main inhibiting factor.

Well it's still somewhat early, and SPC did mention that thinks will really get cranking this evening, but.....looking at HRRR, it just doesn't look like we'll get through the cap along I-10 (I'm sure it's worse further south you go). Was at least wanting a good soak, but not sure that'll happen. Ce...

I know this is for NWS Fort Worth's AOR, but it does pan out to our NW reaches just to get some perspective. It'd be nice if HGX had something similar. Experimental as it may be, still interesting to keep an eye on. https://www.weather.gov/fwd/convectiveparameters Srain, would you mind helping expla...

I had a hunch based on jasons2k's post yesterday on SigTor probabilities that SPC might upgrade a portion to an enhanced risk (full disclosure - I said moderate not realizing i had mistakenly skipped the "enhanced" level). HRRR sounding for my general area looks a bit better as far as not ...

Ruh roh - best I could draw on my phone jason - those are some decently high SigTor probabilities. the ingredients seem like they'll definitely be there for things to get a bit sporty if/when capping can be overcome especially with the amount of shear that will be in place. think SPC will upgrade t...

Thanks, don. Cpv - just looking at HRRR and what's available currently for WRF compared to what HGX is saying in their discussions. It seems to my amateur eye on the forecast sounding for my general area on the west side has it looking close to a capped situation for tomorrow. I've been pegged the p...

HGX including wording that cap may limit rain for tomorrow, now too. Super dry SW flow that davidiowx alluded to for next week's system as well. I think i'm looking at the HRRR model correctly for tomorrow, and it doesn't look promising for rain with SW winds aloft and a big drop in the dew point. B...

I'm seeing some impressive hail reports from Montgomery County and Tomball. Not sure why the whining from some folks... ;) Didnt complain about not getting hailed on. Said it before, been there done that. Seen the dents and damage. Just opined on not feeling great about opportunity for rain tomorro...

I'm seeing some impressive hail reports from Montgomery County and Tomball. Not sure why the whining from some folks... ;) Didnt complain about not getting hailed on. Said it before, been there done that. Seen the dents and damage. Just opined on not feeling great about opportunity for rain tomorro...

Not optimistic about rain tomorrow. Doc did and jason may luck out on rain with the complex plowing through.

Bad feeling we’ll be capped or today’s complex will have overworked the atmosphere.

Late tonight and a cap-busting Friday are the best chances for rain around the Brazos Valley and Houston area. Thanks for posting the AFD. Seems my hunch on the cap was trending in the right direction, and another day of the lid clamped down it seems. Saw a line making its way inland this morning, ...

Temps in the mid 80’s. DP’s in the low 70’s, sun has been out, barometric pressure is about 29.8, and winds are nearly stationary. Seems like thunderstorms would be exploding over our area later this afternoon into this evening. Not sure how you could get a much better setup. You and me both. Methi...

Got dark as the front pushed through, but not a dang drop to show for it. Starting to be an extensive issue drought wise being stuck under this #%^* cap.

Disgusting out there. Rain chances also basically nil. Meanwhile, radar is lighting up like a Christmas tree up north. Seems as though we can get on the right side of any flow to not entrench us with a cap.