I live in the Humble/Atascosita area. Any ideas on what we should be expecting up here in terms of wind/rain? Definitely rain and probably TS winds. Depending on how strong she gets ,could see hurricane winds. Not fun. Hopefully we all make it through safely. The storm itself will suck, but I’m esp...

I live in the Humble/Atascosita area. Any ideas on what we should be expecting up here in terms of wind/rain?

Well these model runs are not good news for Houston.

Lots of folks texting me if we don’t need to worry anymore and what I think now. My reply out: About the same. I'm thinking Matagorda-Sargent. Cat 2. May make a last minute run at a major still. Depends on how quickly Beryl can rebuild its core. What are your thoughts on the track if Beryl becomes ...

Ugh I don't want to hear that.

If Beryl starts intensifying early and becomes stronger than projected, what does that mean for the track? I've always heard that stronger storms tend to go further east. Would that potentially put the Houston area in the bullseye?

Beryl has taken a beating with dry air being entrained and Southly wind shear. The only thing left appears to be a vigorous surface low with no mid level circulation left at all. Beryl likely has another 12 to 24 hours in this hostile environment. I'm not sure that Beryl can fully recover to make a...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:45 am 00z Euro west too, but interestingly is slower in clearing the state on this run

Where does it make landfall and where is the rain focused on when it slows down?

I can't find the image for the 0z run.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:34 am HWRF landfalls in the same place as the HMON and HAFS-B.

Those seem to line up pretty well with the NHC track right?

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather. I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl...

I'm very much out of my element when I read discussions about these storms, so I have a question because it seems like many people here are either professionals or very knowledgeable about the weather. I'm reading the discussion thread on S2K and there have been several comments about how bad Beryl ...

Indeed. What do you do for a living if you don’t mind us asking? Stay safe. I’m staying put in League City unless she blows up to a strong 4. In that case, I will have my car packed and dogs ready to get out of dodge by Sunday evening I work in healthcare so I’ll be riding the storm in the hospital...

Looks like I’m more and more likely to get called into work Sunday or Monday given how this track keeps shifting east. I wonder how far east this thing will shift. Given the short time frame, I fear that Houston will be in the bullseye by the end of the weekend. It’s going to be a mess if that happ...

Looks like I’m more and more likely to get called into work Sunday or Monday given how this track keeps shifting east. I wonder how far east this thing will shift. Given the short time frame, I fear that Houston will be in the bullseye by the end of the weekend. It’s going to be a mess if that happe...

For the pro mets and experts in here, how worried should we be about heavy rain and flooding, especially as the track inches closer to Houston?

Seeing how the storm will only be in Central Texas 48 hours after landfall per the latest NHC track, some Harvey PTSD is rearing its head this morning.

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 11:15 am Due to my job I can't leave even if I wanted to lol

Same. Prep for me is making sure my family is good to go.

That GFS run looks like a complete nightmare rain-wise.

Looks like the ICON makes landfall around Houma, LA. Quite the shift from the 12z run that ended up in Northern Mexico. The 18z run probably would have ended up much closer to SE Texas if it ran past 120 hrs (0z run has Beryl NE of where it was at 120 hours at 18z).

I think it's always a good idea to keep an open mind and not tie yourself to one person's opinion, especially when it's one that you want to be true (ie. confirmation that SE Texas won't get hit directly). Even the best professional meteorologists make mistakes. On this note, I do wonder if the SCW ...

I saw the discussion over the weekend regarding the global models being initialized too weak. Check out the recent posts on the Beryl models threads on S2K. Several posters are saying to throw out this GFS run over being initialized 20 mb too weak. This is a good example of why many of us assumed a ...

https://spacecityweather.com/what-to-ex ... -nicholas/

SCW’s latest post seems to be a bit more positive.