Does the UKMET have a 6z run? If so, when does that start? I think the 0z was just west of Freeport.

GFS hits SW Louisiana 955 mb.....previous run was maybe a hair to the East 971 mb

At least it stays away from Houston, but that intensity is scary.

GFS is 965 mb @48 hrs compared to 991 mb @54 hrs on 0z run.

Well I’m assuming NHC will be moving the track back near us since the Euro is back in our direction. One question regarding this potential southern relocation. How would that potentially affect the track? I’m assuming further west, but how far to the west? Does that place locations like Matagorda an...

Isn’t that way off of what the NHC shows for the update it just posted?

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:16 am Marco has decoupled and could be down to a swirl by morning.

Doesn’t that favor a more eastern track for Laura then? I don’t remember where, but I thought I read that stronger Marco = stronger Laura with more western track and vice versa.

Speaking for myself, if I were in a coastal county or located in a zip code in the Houston metro area that is affected by storm surge, I’d be planning to get out sooner rather than later. There is far too much model guidance that puts the Houston metro in the crosshairs along with the fact that we a...

That UKMET solution is pretty damn scary for the entire Houston metro.

I’ll just reiterate what I’ve thought the whole time about this situation. I don’t envy the NHC or local officials who have to make decisions about evacuations. We are just a few days away from a possible major hitting the gulf coast and everybody seems paralyzed. It is on top of the COVID-19 pande...

I’ll just reiterate what I’ve thought the whole time about this situation. I don’t envy the NHC or local officials who have to make decisions about evacuations.

We are just a few days away from a possible major hitting the gulf coast and everybody seems paralyzed.

Assuming the center really is south of the current spot via the NHC forecast, will they update that prior to the 1 am update?

Quite surprised with the sudden shift eastward from the NHC. I think between finding out where Laura's center may redevelop and how it transverses over Cuba would hold them off on making any big changes. While good news for Houston being out of the cone, I also worry the public will start writing t...

I’m assuming the Euro has something to do with it?

I saw a blog post linked on storm2k that seemed to explain why the Euro track doesn’t seem likely unless Laura shifts north.

I wonder when they are going to call for evacuations. I know there is still tons of uncertainty but we are only a few days out. What a mess.

Well there we go, TX/LA border right in the middle of the cone now.

I'm pretty concerned the chatter regarding the storm being further south than what's been initiated on these model runs. It sounds like the further south Laura is, the more west the likely track is.

The Space City Weather update this morning ought to be sobering.

6z GFS shifted a bit to the east over into SW LA with 954 mb near landfall.

Just for comparison, the 0z run had Laura hitting a bit east of Galveston at 959 mb.

Reading the forecast, it sounds like baring a model shift or the storm tracking more north (which they mention is not as likely given how Laura looks on satellite), I imagine SE Texas will be in the bullseye by 4 pm. Also it looks like they are still projecting a Cat 2, but also mention conditions a...

And many people are going to caught off guard since the models shifted yesterday eastward. Many have written this off affecting our area. It’s going to be pretty damn chaotic if come Monday, we are in the center of the cone and a major hurricane is projected with just a few days to spare. I wonder ...