Search found 5669 matches

by jasons2k
Wed Jan 15, 2025 5:24 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

I'm sure it was just one run. I did say things will change. People speak in the moment. That is what we do here. The Operational GFS is on its own island when looking at the GEFS. Its 500mb setup isn’t close to being right, so I tend to toss both. Euro/CMC blend. There’s where your eyes should be a...
by jasons2k
Wed Jan 15, 2025 3:02 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

😎😎
by jasons2k
Wed Jan 15, 2025 1:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

It’s really not a “guessing game.” Look at the pattern evolution to figure out what the models will do with this. I laid it out yesterday and we’re gonna see that warm nose stick around for awhile before we change to all snow. Not a forecast because it’s a week away, but at my location I’m preparing...
by jasons2k
Wed Jan 15, 2025 12:20 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

tireman4 wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2025 12:15 pm Euro ( Wxman 57's take on it, "Looking at the EC soundings, that freezing rain area looks more like sleet for SE TX."
In other words, he didn’t completely toss the 500mb to 850mb charts on that run 😉
by jasons2k
Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:58 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

AtascocitaWX wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:55 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:48 ameuro
So we may be looking at more Ice storm then Snow ?
by jasons2k
Wed Jan 15, 2025 11:54 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

Euro is starting to come around to my thinking on this…500mb a lot more believable than the garbage on the GFS.
by jasons2k
Tue Jan 14, 2025 3:37 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

by jasons2k
Tue Jan 14, 2025 1:13 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

Brazoriatx979 wrote: Tue Jan 14, 2025 1:11 pm I just hope the damn power doesn't go out again
I think there will be issues but not because ERCOT didn’t prepare. You can’t fight pine trees coated in ice.
by jasons2k
Tue Jan 14, 2025 1:12 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

I expect the Houston area is below freezing for a few days, yes. The ice storm potential is very concerning to me, NGL. Been thinking this for almost a week. Pattern recognition wins over modeling every time. I don’t need 1,000 posts in two weeks to get the message across, either 😉 Hope the entire ...
by jasons2k
Tue Jan 14, 2025 1:00 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

I expect the Houston area is below freezing for a few days, yes. The ice storm potential is very concerning to me, NGL. Been thinking this for almost a week.

Pattern recognition wins over modeling every time. I don’t need 1,000 posts in two weeks to get the message across, either 😉
by jasons2k
Tue Jan 14, 2025 12:33 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

The Ice Man cometh
by jasons2k
Tue Jan 14, 2025 12:32 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

The interesting thing is that the EURO a few days ago was already showing this winterstorm but it went away and now it’s back. Short version: it was struggling with the trough evolution and the 500mb charts went whack but it’s finding it again. Expect subsequent runs to start deepening the coastal ...
by jasons2k
Tue Jan 14, 2025 10:29 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

If I were to wrote a script….

Get ready folks.
by jasons2k
Mon Jan 13, 2025 9:04 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

NWS will be conservative until they are certain.
by jasons2k
Mon Jan 13, 2025 8:12 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2025 10:19 pm
jasons2k wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2025 9:47 pm Y’all got your ice picks ready!?!? 😆😆
Jason knows. I’ll grant spring after this and get ready to start chewing my allergy medicine
I’m starting my cold preps today and telling everyone I know to get ready.
by jasons2k
Sun Jan 12, 2025 9:47 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

Y’all got your ice picks ready!?!? 😆😆
by jasons2k
Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:47 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

While I ponder trimming the live oaks before the ice storm…today sure was beautiful. I think I lasted about 30 minutes in the sun before I was in my short sleeve T-shirt. Today was one of those beautiful days for sure.
by jasons2k
Sat Jan 11, 2025 8:43 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Jan 11, 2025 8:32 am
jasons2k wrote: Sat Jan 11, 2025 8:26 am It’s sure nice to see the sun again!! That dreary Seattle weather is for the birds!!
Out working cows in 30 and sun. I love it. Sure beats 70-80 this time of morning and fog
I’m waiting for it to hit 40 before venturing out into the frozen tundra 😄
by jasons2k
Sat Jan 11, 2025 8:26 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

It’s sure nice to see the sun again!! That dreary Seattle weather is for the birds!!
by jasons2k
Fri Jan 10, 2025 9:21 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2025
Replies: 1382
Views: 68168

Re: January 2025

Just a repeat of what we just had. It’s different. Both the PNA and EPO are more favorable for our area this time around. Which is why I think Hou metro probably sees a ice storm in a set up like this. Colder air, SE ridge, yup, sleet and freezing rain. My general area and west towards SA and Austi...