Cpv17 yup, at the very least i think we get a surge of moisture from this, but given some places in se texas saw 6-15 inches of rain last night from the storms, the grounds will be saturated, if we get even a weak sloppy sheared system to go in even in south texas, that would still spread heavy rain...

The ICON rides up the mexican coast just off shore as it heads towards potentially south texas

Cpv17 yeah worth watching, im watching the 500 mb height pattern to see if we get a weakness over texas, CMC shows that somewhat, steering collapses over south texas, system stalls out, GFS kinda hinted at that on the 06z run compared to 12z

00z HRRR with a max bullseye of 20-25 inches in fort bend county, that would be absolutely devastating

Haha , i think our saving grace for this summer is that we will remain in enso neutral conditions until peak hurricane season in which i believe we will be heading into another la nina event, we will still have periods of very hot weather this summer, but im definitely pretty optimistic chances of r...

Keep in mind though, quieter doesnt also necessarily a good thing, some of the most damaging hurricanes on record have occured in less active seasons in the atlantic, ill also point out that the gulf is well on its way to having record breaking upper ocean heat content energy, so thats something to ...

Id still say we should keep an eye on that potential disturbance in the BOC, GFS has a weakness in the ridge allowing something to move into south texas and kind of just meander around inland , Euro has a weak cut off low that could erode the ridge over the gulf, definitely not set in stone that wha...

06z HRRR has between 7-15 inches for parts of se texas throufh friday, wednesday afternoon- early Friday morning is looking concerning

Wouldn’t be surprised to see FFW’s issued tommorow as a very slow moving upper low lingers in texas through friday, HRRR shows significant rains right across the heart of downtown

Yikes! 18z HRRR hinting at a flooding event somewhere in se texas with training rain bands wednesday- friday

CMC/ GFS on bord with some mischief in the BOC in 9/10 days, though gets buried in mexico, not that it mattera in that range anyways

Cpv17 amazing photo!

Yeah im seeing big talk about deracho potential in north texas, hope that doesn’t come to pass

Lets relax yall, most folks in se texas are gonna get rainfall, in my opinion , im expecting widespread 1-3 inches in se texas with 4-6 inches possible in some places, lets wait until the short range models are in range of any disturbances next week,

Summer keeps getting pushed back ( except for these next dew days of suckage ) wet pattern continues into july, maybe some tropical mischief as well, im starting to buy into a more 2021 type summer, big heat stays focused over the western and northern US, while we get closer to average temperatures ...

looks like we get a stalled frontal boundary setting up over se texas next week, that could actually help to draw up moisture fron the EPAC into the western gulf, combine that with moisture from the caribbean and man it could be a very wet week next week, and cant rule out some development in the so...

Some interesting analogs about this summer ( july-september) being talked about on social media ( x) im hearing some folks talk about this summer looking similar to 2021 when we had a cooler and wetter summer here, some of the climate models, especially the NMME really keep july- september on the co...

DoctorMu Storm2k is up, just was on a couple of minutes ago

Cpv17 yeah i saw a post on facebook the other day about hurricanes in june hitting texas, last one was in the very early 1900’s, so yeah that seems pretty unlikely, though even a weak system would cause issues given how saturated soils have become over the last month across se texas

Tropical mischief week two? Look where the highest odds of above normal precipitation are located and it matches up with the tropical hazards outlook in the same time frame