Thanks everyone! So back to the weather, it feels absolutely disgusting out there today. And with the SOI remaining so positive and with the La Niña background state, I feel like my previous post a while back about not getting any rain till possibly a tropical system comes our way might come to fru...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:58 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Apr 15, 2022 9:13 pm Congratulations Cpv17! Change can be a bit intimidating, but an increase in pay in the current inflationary environment is a positive thing. All the best to you!

Thank you! I definitely could use it.

Congratulations. Sounds like you will be traveling a lot.

Lol Noaa’s 6-10 and 8/14 day outlooks are calling for near average to slightly above normal precipitation here in SE Texas, thats a good joke!😆 I expect these maps will trend to below normal precipitation the next few days, dont see anything significant in the models I don't trust models at all lat...

I hope next spring is neutral or El Niño. Three springs in a row of La Niña is too many.

When I woke-up, NWS had raised my chances to 50% for today and the weather app showed 80%. NWS midday update lowered them to 30%. Just refreshed my phone app and just like that - zap - shows no rain today. In fact, no rain for the next 10 days. :( 12z EURO is showing another system in about a week ...

Where are our storms supposed to start forming? My NWS in Beaumont has 70% storms around 3-5pm. I dont see anything except whats up north. Hot and muggy and not much else. Gonna be a long miserable summer It's always miserable in the summer. Haha! As far as the rain pattern, it's still too early. R...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:30 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:27 pm CPV17 unfortunately thats 16 days out

It’s an ensemble. That’s what you look at when you’re talking long range. It’s a good sign.

What I always like to remind people is that sometimes it only takes one storm to break a drought for us. Lol

Both the 0z HRRR and 3km NAM show a good chance of rain coming up on Tuesday morning/afternoon. They don't show any crazy amounts, but sometimes they underestimate rainfall.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 7:29 pm The GFS is no longer looking good for rain next week.

The rain is back now. Lol

GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain, EURO about a tenth of an inch The way 2022 has gone, I'll be pulling the sprinklers out next week too. I'm waiting for the 12z Euro, but I am actually more encouraged about model trends. The Euro had a rather significant southward shift in precipitation between yesterd...

GFS has good consistency for Storms in Southern & SE Texas on April 12th At some point, I suspect we will get a decent amount of storms. Capping, as usual, has been a problem for our area, but eventually the issue of capping goes away. What we really need is a nice cutoff low to develop out to ...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:35 pm The past few runs of the GFS have been looking a bit more encouraging as we head towards mid month.

This year is strikingly similar to last year. At this time last year, we were experiencing a very similar dry spell. I would not be surprised to see the end of the month turn wetter.

Day 4 Slight Risk The GFS has this well north of here. More so in far northern Texas and into Oklahoma. EURO likes north and east houston I am leaning more towards the EURO on this system because the past several systems have been further south than models forecasted. My area was forecasted to rece...

As I expected, I dont see a wet pattern taking shape, maybe a storm system every 7-10 days but thats about it I’m beginning to think you don’t like rain much lol Anyway, the 12z GFS looks decent. 1-2” over the next couple weeks. That would be good enough. Agreed. Keep in mind that this amount is av...

Looks like a good chance of rain may be coming up next week again. April starts in less than 2 days!

So glad this system over-performed what was forecasted on rainfall. If we keep up these weekly storm systems, we should be in good shape once we get closer to summer. The driest summers almost always follow very dry springs. On another note, I hope the weather does not get too bad towards our east! ...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:00 pm CPV17 yeah thays definitely surprising

I do not think we saw a single above-precipitation forecast for spring 2011. This is certainly heading in the right direction now! Looks we might just see April showers.

Im really not concerned with the severe threat on wednesday, just expecting some general thunderstorms, maybe an isolated atrong storm Yeah. At this point, I am hoping for 0.5-1 inch of rain out of this. I need some rain to water in some fertilizer now that everything is finally budding. I have daf...

Cpv17 looks like it’s showing a cut off upper low on that run Yeah it’s a good looking bowling ball. Well the 0z Euro continues to insist a cutoff low developing out west of us towards the end of the run. It is not moving much, but I am starting to think that it senses the potential for a pattern c...

Mike Ventrice has a concerning forecast next week https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1506676446131011586?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet Yep. Severe weather season is really picking up now. Models are hinting at the strong possibility of thunderstorms again mid next week fo...