Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2022032006/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't init...

Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z. I was looking back at the run, and I fig...

Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well. It went p...

Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2022032006/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't init...

Given that Waller (and Harris) County is excluded from the tor watches and the angle of movement, it looks like the NWS isn't too worried about tornadoes in the Houston metro south of say Lake Conroe. Though it's possible that could change. Thank you so much. I have been so worried! One thing to no...

Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2022032006/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't init...

don wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:13 pm 0Z 3K NAM showing discreet cells Monday night ahead of the MCS.

What really bothers me is that this is happening during the middle of the night on this run. Not good.

don wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 1:35 pm 12Z EURO rainfall amounts

I think rainfall amounts could be even higher in some areas. The Euro only moves the line about 50-75 miles in 6 hours. That's not very fast at all.

There’s a huge difference between the Euro and GFS. GFS is pretty much crickets, while the Euro has 1-2” over a good part of southeast TX. The GFS has higher amounts towards the Golden Triangle and into LA. The Euro has huge totals towards central and north TX. Yeah what's weird is that now the GFS...

Latest Euro doesn’t show much for southeast TX. It still shows a strong line of storms moving through Tuesday. The line looks to be moving fairly fast, but I still think rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are going to be rather likely. I don't think we really will know just how much rain to expect unti...

Much of the rain next week per Ensembles, etc. looks NE of the area. Would gladly take 0.5 in or more. I was surprised to find standing water in my yard this afternoon after the rain yesterday. As far as where the heaviest rain will be, I think it's most likely too early to know. We probably will k...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:03 pm 18z GFS..now that’s what I’m talking about!

It is a little wetter through day 10, but I see what you are talking about beyond that!

Well, the 12z Euro looked very promising for rainfall, but I will not buy it yet. However, I believe the overall pattern is shifting towards a more active state for our area. The fact that many areas received the most rainfall in months suggests that the pattern may be changing.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:43 pm I washed my truck when I got home from work. Apologies to anyone that might experience floods, hail, tornados, volcanos and the like...

So far, I am only experiencing rain and not mist this time! Woohoo! Now, perhaps a sound of thunder? If not, I will certainly settle for the rain.

Well, I put out some fertilizer (not much) so I am hoping it gets wet enough to soak in a little. It was already starting to rain when I dispersed it, but I am hoping for 0.25-0.5 inches. Looks like more rain is heading my way. I just hope these cells with hail stay away!

Didn't quite reach a light freeze here. Got to 34, which is good, so it won't reset my plants and lawn from continuing to green up. Same here. 33. The trees will be happy. 29°F here. Our trees are good. Nothing in my yard is leafing yet. Our next door neighbor has elm trees with tiny leaves. They l...

Don't commit Crepe Murder ;) https://www.southernliving.com/garden/crepe-murder https://aggie-horticulture.tamu.edu/archives/parsons/publications/stopthecrape.html Yes!!!! Thank you!! I usually feel like I’m the only sane person when it comes to crepe myrtles. Why everyone thinks they’re supposed t...

March is definitely living up to being the windy month it seems. I picked the wrong day to continue cutting back crepe myrtles. Haha! Most people cut their crepe myrtles back around Valentine's Day, but with this prolonged cold, I decided to wait until about now.

The pool is just steaming away as the heat slowly gets sucked out. Such a waste of that sun we had over the weekend. These days of 45 degrees and dreary is for the birds. Can’t wait for April and that first 90 degree day. It will get here quick after this. I would prefer a good two months of spring...

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 12:19 pm Gonna be a long summer if we are already dried out.

Not necessarily. Remember, last year was mostly dry until about April and May. Historically, March is one of the driest months of the year for our area. Sometimes, the pattern turns wetter later into spring.