I beleive we may have dodged a Bullet here. Still have guard up but East trends dont normally trend back west too often. I wouldn't say that until at least Friday. Most models have been wrong this season that were sending storms more east. The Euro was wrong concerning Elsa with it being an eastern...

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS... And they are on the same team! :D May have spoke too soon. Ha. HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana. Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z s...

The NHC also mentions that Texas and Louisiana could have impacts from the system such as rain, wind, and storm surge. I think they are not buying the east shifts yet.

Wxman57 sounds like he leaning strongly towards sounding the all clear for Houston. I hope he's right about no impacts, but it sure will be hot if it goes east of us. The messiah has spoken 👏 A lot can still change between now and Tuesday though. Just me personally, I think we still need a center t...

Wxman57 sounds like he leaning strongly towards sounding the all clear for Houston. I hope he's right about no impacts, but it sure will be hot if it goes east of us.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:23 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:11 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 5:39 pm GFS landfall New Orleans what next Florida.

Lol wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

Massachusetts

Or even better--it drops development completely.

This POS can go straight into LA or Brownsville. Don't need a storm messing up the first week of CFB , and I certainly don't want power out in Summer. I can survive below zero with no power... screw heat indices of 100 plus and no power. Could not agree more! Lol No. It just needs to be a rain make...

I hesitate to post because it’s not unusual for him to try to be one of the first to call for the worst case but he often gets burned. Take it with a grain of salt. Says this storm could be in the same “genre” as Laura, Harvey and Micheal = intense cyclones reaching peak intensity during landfall. ...

don wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:10 pm 12Z GFS ensemble tracks.

The mean track is very close to Carla's track.

Just my 2 cents but I believe we live in a totally different world than what once was. You can throw out all the records, statistics, history.....it's a new ball game now...the "hot spots" have changed.... That is possible that it has changed, but we would have to have at least another 10...

If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up. Edit: actua...

If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up. Edit: actual...

As much as I want to believe the GFS, I would not be surprised to see enough of a weakness for this approaching system to threaten Texas. I think this especially considering that the ridge has had a tendency not to stay over us long throughout this summer.

So the GFS developed something in earlier runs, but appears to have dropped it now. However, that is not the first time we have seen the GFS develop something in long-range modeling, drop it, and then see something form later on. We will need to watch this closely since ensemble guidance is suggesti...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:52 am srainhoutx hope that dust stays away from the gulf, im already coughing and sneezing enough lol

I agree. There is something in the air that made my asthma horrible yesterday and Tuesday. Today, it is better but I do not need more dirty aerosols.

Look for a quiet period the next 10+ days or so as a big surge of African dust moves across the MDR into the Caribbean Sea. Typically SAL outbreaks end in mid August as we transition to the climatilogical peak of Hurricane season near mid September. I do see growing indications of a robust CCKW mov...

The 18z GFS is a mess. A few days ago it and the Euro were picking up on the meager wave that's currently at 50w. Euro has pretty much dropped it but as late as the 0z last night was oddly doing it. Now it's an early season like battle between the EPAC and BoC. Usually the EPAC wins out but it does...

Interestingly enough, there is a chance that Grace redevelops after it emerges into the EPAC. Also, Henri is getting closer and closer to a potential New England impact.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:02 am The first month of meteorological fall ( September 1) as well as the Fall Equinox. What will be in store for us this year?

Hopefully cooler weather and no hurricanes!

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:49 pm There is also a huge cold front break out in the next couple weeks - may shunt everything away from us
we shall see

I will believe the front when I see it happen. I have seen models forecast fronts, only for them to be replaced by a ridge.