Those storms in northern Montgomery county are not moving much... Radar indicates 3" - 4" of rain has fallen so far for those areas And it doesn't look like they are in any big hurry to move out of that region anytime soon as radar indicating the storms are back building southwest across ...

The storm in east central Austin county is showing some signs of some weak rotation at this time. While tornadoes are not expected to be the main severe weather threat this evening, still be on the lookout for a possible spin up especially along any of the boundaries left over from earlier convectio...

Radar will be up in 5min.

Direct Link to Reflectivity data
http://weather.xonelabs.com/khgx_br1.png

Link to other radar products
http://weather.xonelabs.com/radar.htm

Right now a strong storm is located half way between Bellville and Sealy just east of SH36 moving ENE. Radar currently indicating 1.21'' hail possible with this storm. Another strong storm is currently located across northeast Montgomery and southwest San Jacinto counties.

It looks like my hunch that convection won't really start developing until the boundary starts to move into our northwester counties is correct. As the SPC hinted at in their MCD, areas across the hill county and central Texas remained capped just enough to inhibit the widespread convective developm...

Taking a look at some RUC model soundings just north of the CLL area. It looks like there might still be somewhat of a cap around 800mb. Also, moisture seems to be lacking a bit as well. Moisture levels increase substantially and we remained un-capped down here in southeast Texas...therefore we migh...

Wind shift line showing up nicely on KGRK radar this afternoon.

Matt, it appears the hail threat has gone up some as the day has progressed. Is that true? The latest model data and RUC surface mesoanalysis suggests a good amount of CAPE in the -10 to -30C level which is favorable for hail development...also with lowering wet-bulb-zero heights later this evening...

Right now we are just waiting for initiation to occur over the next 3 hours or so along the frontal boundary. You can see a cu field developing along the front in the visible satellite image posted by srain. Latest RUC data shows plenty of instability out there with ML CAPE in the 2000-2500J/kg rang...

Currently scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along the coast and just off shore where the greatest moisture and instability currently reside. Some isolated showers have been popping up over the last hour further inland across the coastal and central zones as the surface starts to war...

SPC AC 311728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKI...

12z NAM/GFS model soundings continue to indicate an isolated severe risk across the region with decent a very decent CAPE profile and a good hail growth region, so I would suspect to see SPC go ahead and put out a slight risk for our region with hail and winds the main threats. There is some clockwi...

I read at the other site that this winter could be like 1989-90, which had strong cold blasts in December. The rest of the winter was mild. I think many people will be surprised with some of the temps we could see later this year. Indeed, even though we are in a La Nina winter it will not take much...

Looking at some of the medium range progs, cooler weather will likely persist over the next couple of weeks. Models are indicating that a trough will develop east of the rockies and could become cutoff over the southeast US early next week. The 12z GFS is much further west with the placement of the ...

Two very interesting reads on today's cyclone can be found below. The second link is a little more technical but written in a very easily understandable way.

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/

http://jasonahsenmacher.wordpress.com/

What is interesting about this cyclone is that it is not going to be bringing down a significantly colder air-mass in its wake. Talking with some more experienced meteorologists in the office...a forecaster looking at this type of setup would, based off pattern recognition likely expect a much colde...

It is looking more and more like the Wed/Thu front won't be able to produce much if any measurable precip across the region as models continue to trend drier, with PW's lucky to reach around 1.4-1.5 inches right along the frontal boundary. Model cross sections confirm this as they only show a very s...

For those interested I have the radar on currently viewing the severe thunderstorms around the Corsicana, TX area which have had a history of producing hail and a confirmed tornado. I will keep the radar up for a bit since things have been so quiet around here. This time since the radar site has cha...

Next week's front is looking much drier as well, and IAH stands a good chance to go the entire month of October without a drop of rain, which I honestly didn't think was possible I think the lack of any real good moisture return is the main reason we have been so dry lately. Yes, there has been the...

A look at the 00z soundings from both CRP and LCH show moisture return currently confined to the lowest 1-2km with very dry air above that. Currently lower to mid 60 dew points reside across central and southern sections of southeast Texas. Moisture should deepen through tomorrow and we should see s...