Search found 729 matches

by Belmer
Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:03 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66129

Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Well after Harvey hit that winter we had snow....soooooooo...maybe after nick we will have...do I dare say it? Ha. I was just about to post about this. Fingers crossed for a winter treat now that Nicholas said hello. ;) Looks like you got a good hit down near Freeport last night, Kingwood. Hope the...
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:03 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66129

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

When will you know if these numbers verify? I'd like to see a dominant low-level circulation develop that we can track. I see a vigorous eddy that could be it. Further NW than where NHC has it and did line up with the Euro a bit better as far as position. Euro has been more of the outlier on the ex...
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:49 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66129

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.

15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:32 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66129

Re: September 2021: Watching the Western Gulf

I think with this run, we can officially throw the GFS in the trash can for this system at least, 981mb is near cat 2 strength and I really just think the GFS is overdoing this system, even the 00z ICON is more in line with the Euro solution GFS showing a 981mb storm near TX/MX border is very reaso...
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:23 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66129

Re: September 2021: Watching the Western Gulf

Based on the latest TWO I'd guess that even if recon doesn't find a classifiable system later this morning they will at least initiate PTC advisories at 4. Agree, quite a bit of 850mb vorticity and even noted 500mb. Likely will have some good mid-level rotation by sunrise once fully emerged over Bo...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 3:12 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2021
Replies: 614
Views: 39402

Re: July 2021

Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike was making aim for Galveston... 29-year old me today would have much more reservations. :roll: HRRR oftentimes can sniff out these nocturnal tropical feeder bands...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:29 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2021
Replies: 614
Views: 39402

Re: July 2021

I think what happened is some people were trying to wishcast the heaviest rains towards Houston for some reason, but when it didn’t happen they called it a bust. Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike ...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2021
Replies: 614
Views: 39402

Re: July 2021

I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance. No need to ...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:44 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Blake Mathews Leaving KHOU
Replies: 12
Views: 1426

Re: Blake Mathews Leaving KHOU

Congratulations, Blake! Your enthusiasm will be missed here in the Houston market. Best of luck and enjoy your new adventures in Florida.
by Belmer
Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: MARCH 2021
Replies: 113
Views: 14880

Re: MARCH 2021

It looks like that storm turned into a pretty good squall. I thought that pretty much ended the Tornado threat once the squall hits. Is something coming in behind it for them? Doesn't eliminate the tornado threat, but reduces it. Can still get tornadoes embedded within the squall line out ahead of ...