Search found 739 matches

by Belmer
Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:49 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 462
Views: 75972

Re: 2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

One thing to take away from this, notice over the last 30 years, we are experiencing the warmest SST anomalies since '97/98 and '15. Takeaway? Those were El Niño years. SST.gif The summer of 1997 was a below average hurricane season, with only 8 named storms, 3 of which became hurricanes, one of tho...
by Belmer
Sat Feb 17, 2024 11:24 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2024
Replies: 149
Views: 80966

Re: February 2024

On average, Houston's last freeze is between Feb 15-20. Unlikely IAH will record a freeze tonight, but it will likely be the closest they'll get, dare I say until November or December? I don't mind the cold, but once there's a prolong period of warmth, I get the Spring itch and ready to move on. Loo...
by Belmer
Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:08 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2022
Replies: 867
Views: 188394

Re: January 2022

All I'm seeing out of the models is a volatile Pacific west-to-east flow with a few disturbances riding along the Pacific jet giving us some opportunities for some rain over the next 2+ weeks. Definitely don't see the warmth this month like we saw in December, but with below normal snow pack across ...
by Belmer
Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:37 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2021
Replies: 369
Views: 108240

Re: December 2021

As for Christmas forecast.. GFS (06z) says 80s (mid to upper 80s near and west of Dallas). Euro has been trending cooler in the latest runs with mid 60s. Pretty large disagreement on the upper-level pattern come next weekend between the two. One thing they agree on is a dry forecast which would be ...
by Belmer
Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:27 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2021
Replies: 369
Views: 108240

Re: December 2021

Yep,I also notice the mesoscale models are showing an impulse moving in ahead of the front tomorrow.Producing possibly some semi discreet cells before a storm complex or weak MCS moves in with the front.Any discreet cells that do develop ahead of the front tomorrow could have a tornado risk. Yeah, ...
by Belmer
Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2021
Replies: 369
Views: 108240

Re: December 2021

Don't let tomorrow's weather catch you off guard with the main focus being some potentially hefty rainfall totals across our region. Looking over some soundings and model data this morning, wouldn't rule out some locations picking up 2-3+ inches with PWs in the 1.6-1.8" range which is nearing ...
by Belmer
Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:41 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2021
Replies: 369
Views: 108240

Re: December 2021

Don't let tomorrow's weather catch you off guard with the main focus being some potentially hefty rainfall totals across our region. Looking over some soundings and model data this morning, wouldn't rule out some locations picking up 2-3+ inches with PWs in the 1.6-1.8" range which is nearing +...
by Belmer
Tue Nov 30, 2021 4:33 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2021
Replies: 369
Views: 108240

Re: December 2021

If I didn't know better, 20 pages into a thread in which the month hasn't even started yet, I'd think there would be an incoming blizzard later this week. We all need to remember, models are just one tool in a very large toolbox. This forum wouldn't be where it is today without the many great dialog...
by Belmer
Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:59 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2021
Replies: 245
Views: 101448

Re: October 2021

Belmer so in other words, our weather here is going to suck for the next 2-3 weeks I'll go with uneventful as I'm not too bothered by it as I do enjoy the the overall pleasant weather we've had of late. However, it would be nice to pick up some measurable rain with these fronts that swing through. ...
by Belmer
Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:48 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2021
Replies: 245
Views: 101448

Re: October 2021

Very La Niña like right now. Few troughs pass through over the next 10-14 days, but nothing abnormal on the horizon. Rain will also hard to come by with any of the aforementioned troughs. Was hoping TD17-E (soon to be Rick) would deliver, but looking like much of the remnant moisture will move towar...
by Belmer
Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:03 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 412891

Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Well after Harvey hit that winter we had snow....soooooooo...maybe after nick we will have...do I dare say it? Ha. I was just about to post about this. Fingers crossed for a winter treat now that Nicholas said hello. ;) Looks like you got a good hit down near Freeport last night, Kingwood. Hope the...
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:03 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 412891

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

When will you know if these numbers verify? I'd like to see a dominant low-level circulation develop that we can track. I see a vigorous eddy that could be it. Further NW than where NHC has it and did line up with the Euro a bit better as far as position. Euro has been more of the outlier on the ex...
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:49 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 412891

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.

15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:32 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 412891

Re: September 2021: Watching the Western Gulf

I think with this run, we can officially throw the GFS in the trash can for this system at least, 981mb is near cat 2 strength and I really just think the GFS is overdoing this system, even the 00z ICON is more in line with the Euro solution GFS showing a 981mb storm near TX/MX border is very reaso...
by Belmer
Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:23 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 412891

Re: September 2021: Watching the Western Gulf

Based on the latest TWO I'd guess that even if recon doesn't find a classifiable system later this morning they will at least initiate PTC advisories at 4. Agree, quite a bit of 850mb vorticity and even noted 500mb. Likely will have some good mid-level rotation by sunrise once fully emerged over Bo...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:12 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2021
Replies: 614
Views: 181843

Re: July 2021

Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike was making aim for Galveston... 29-year old me today would have much more reservations. :roll: HRRR oftentimes can sniff out these nocturnal tropical feeder bands...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2021
Replies: 614
Views: 181843

Re: July 2021

I think what happened is some people were trying to wishcast the heaviest rains towards Houston for some reason, but when it didn’t happen they called it a bust. Plausible scenario. And as a meteorologist, I understand the excitement of extreme events. 15-year old me was excited when Hurricane Ike ...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2021
Replies: 614
Views: 181843

Re: July 2021

I'm perplexed reading comments saying how this event was a bust. Outside of the HRRR (which hasn't had the greatest reputation IMO with these cutoff and meso lows the last few months) showing 12-16" overnight for someone, it has mainly totaled what was forecasted several days in advance. No nee...
by Belmer
Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:44 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Blake Mathews Leaving KHOU
Replies: 12
Views: 9713

Re: Blake Mathews Leaving KHOU

Congratulations, Blake! Your enthusiasm will be missed here in the Houston market. Best of luck and enjoy your new adventures in Florida.
by Belmer
Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: MARCH 2021
Replies: 113
Views: 51298

Re: MARCH 2021

It looks like that storm turned into a pretty good squall. I thought that pretty much ended the Tornado threat once the squall hits. Is something coming in behind it for them? Doesn't eliminate the tornado threat, but reduces it. Can still get tornadoes embedded within the squall line out ahead of ...