I feel interesting times are just ahead.

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:02 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:49 pm Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro

18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.

Boy, that 72 hour mark has quite a variance between models. Not sure if that’s good or bad.

Was that slowdown in the original plan? Looks like St. Nick is going to stay around a while

Wow, haven’t been here in a while! It looks like a lot of people are interested in weather lately, that’s nice! Anyway, let’s just catch up on the weaWHAT IS HAPPENING HERE WHAT ARE THOSE MODELS DOING WHAT IS THIS OMG

Maybe time to change the thread name??

NHC’s latest TWO shows nothing doing in the Gulf.

It looks like an absolute maelstrom in South Texas. Is that our future if the stuff in the Gulf dissipates, I wonder?

Just lost power in Sienna

don wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 1:07 pm The HRRR has trended substantially south with the mesoscale complex this evening, and is now showing very concerning totals this evening/night...

Gotta be some kind of feedback error. Nothing out there and it’s almost mid afternoon. Hope I’m right!

-Steve

Is it my imagination, or has Louisiana gotten all the rain this year?

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:55 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat May 15, 2021 11:34 pm 0Z GFS qpf amounts....

That’s nuts.

Quite a few people said it was nuts around September of 2017, too... I’d keep my antenna up on this one, folks.

Surprising there’s not more chatter around here what with potential flooding rains and a possible tropical system later next week...

David Paul seems supremely unconcerned with the possibility. And he’s usually pretty good about pointing out weather outlier possibilities well in advance...

So I was under the impression that the south part of the area would be getting more rain, but so far I feel like Lucy pulled the ball away. Are we expecting more to head south?

I feel like it’s been almost heading just north of due west (maybe 285) for the last hour or two. At the speed it’s going wobbles have more impact down the line. I too share concerns about the 94 degree line if it doesn’t gain some latitude immediately...

I’m just not seeing it. Seems like rain bands just can’t get going over the Gulf west of Chambers County. Are they expecting the bands to form later?

The HRRR seems to move most of the rain out after about 11 hours. Coupled with the dry slot to the south and the dry air entrainment it looks (hopes?) like the worst may be over...

Latest runs of the HRRR model now shows the core rains starting earlier mid afternoon into the evening/night, instead of overnight. The NWS is calling for up to 20+ inches of rain in some areas especially in metro Houston where more than 12 inches of rain has fallen overnight over the southwest sid...

Our friendly neighborhood forum WX experts are mighty quiet tonight...

So everybody seems kind of ‘blah’ abut this setup. If you told me a month ago that there would be a dying tropical system 70 miles from Houston with us in the right top quadrant and it was forecast to hang around for 2-3 more days, I’d have looked into a pontoon boat. I’m actually quite nervous abou...