Besides maybe the CMC at times, the long range global models have been close to useless for all intents and purposes. Last week all of the models, outside of the CMC like I illustrated yesterday, depicted a hot and dry weather pattern over the majority of Central and SE TX this week through July 4t...

So, how would you all rank the snow events?

Dec 2004
Dec 2008
Dec 2009
Dec 2017
Feb 2021
Jan 2025

It does, but the area behind the pool wall is somewhat enclosed, so I was trying to create a snow-free microclimate back there. The mule palms did fine. I only hit 18.5 so they would have been fine unprotected but I had a forecast low of 15, so I played it safe just in case that 15 busted. Places t...

My official measurement in Baytown is 5 inches. I found as many flat open areas as I could and got really consistent data. By "flat, open area", are you just referring generally (e.g. any flat area, like a grassy field). Or do you specifically mean flat surfaces (e.g. table tops, flat boa...

Enjoy it while it lasts! The sun will be out this afternoon for most of us. I’m OK with that, don’t want to lose my mule palms in some crazy single-digit freeze. Yes, sun is already breaking out in my area. I'm guessing that melting can occur surprisingly fast? Not to mention, there's also the subl...

No one is asking you to leave, just don’t be a whiny negative poster when one model isn’t showing what we or you want. Isn't the nature of snowfall dictated by the temps? This snow might be more "wet" (and, easier to make snowmen, etc) due to the milder temps in contrast to Feb 2021 (whic...

Guys, remember we are on the sane page. We are about to transition to now casting. Let's watch as the precipitation as it moves into.thd CWA. Indeed. We'll have to see whatever last minute tricks/quirks/details/etc can happen in comparison to the overall precip trends from recent (at time of commen...

HRRR continues to suppress QPF/snow totals along the coast Yep. And since this is the 18z run, it already accounts for the variables people mentioned (e.g. how the earlier cloud cover is suppressing high temps today). Pair that with the system moving away faster, and we might very well get blanked....

The overall system is also moving faster, as shown with the GFS trend. That would further decrease totals, unless last-minute details can compensate.

The problem with the GFS is that the totals include sleet/wintry mixes. The actual snowfall would be less. The NAM shows example, latest 12z has a band of 4 inches in the coastal counties. But using "Ferrier" correction tool, that takes sleet/ice into account, and shows the actual snowfall...

So far, the latest HRRR12z keeps with the suppressed theme. It won't surprise me if the UKMET option is right all along.

But yes, definitely will need to watch any changes throughout the day.

It wouldn't surprise me if we only got a mere dusting out of this event. Like on the latest UKMET here:

Wxman57 saying no warm nose. All snow for Houston. Indeed. But the whole height/thickness field is also trending southward. That is consistent with the NAM suppression trend. So, while the event might be all snow for Houston ... totals are also lowering as well. Look at that arctic air "winnin...

Interesting

Globals are useless at this range, right? But even mesoscales don't look all that so far. For example, with the NAMs, there has been a clear trend towards suppression. And all of them actually warm the area up above freezing by Tuesday afternoon (most evident on NAM3km). Maybe something is amiss, bu...

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 5:25 pm Never was sold on this one, but I'll take the step down as we enter a very nice 4-6 week period of actual Winter.

But Joe Bastardi mentioned something about the EPO switch, which caused the cold feed to dissipate?

So far, doesn't look like much for SE Texas beyond cold rain in the upper 30s/40s. Even the coldest ICON and CMC models trended warmer. CMC's H5 pattern will not work for snow — maybe wintry mix returns at most.

NAM and HRRR don't show anything extraordinary.

The worst of it skipped Port Arthur to the south, thankfully. But it's strange. I don't see much in the way of noteworthy damage from the images I'm seeing so far. Just stuff like powerline/poles tilted. So either the tornado was not very strong (unlike imaging indicated), or it simply passed over a...

Also, the storms have overperformed in general. I'm hearing that Travis Herzog mentioned rotational activity would be focused more north. Yet there is a notable storm farther south towards Port Arthur now (same one that affected League City/Dickinson/Bacliff areas earlier).

The southern storm is a monster, still going strong towards Port Arthur (as of time of writing).