Search found 328 matches

by jeff
Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later
Replies: 1801
Views: 1035452

Re: August 2017: Increasing Rain Chances/Tracking The Tropic

12Z ECWMF...eeek! Shows massive rains with peak accumulations of 32 inches over portions of SE/SC TX. A tropical system moving up from the SSE into a frontal zone should be of concern in this state. Even if the landfall is over NE MX...we have seen many times the real disaster is over TX from inland...
by jeff
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later
Replies: 1801
Views: 1035452

Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ TS Franklin NW Caribbean Sea

Always keep an eye on an MVC in 2.0+ inch PW air mass with light winds aloft. Lack of good low level inflow may keep things from organizing much...although coastal outflow boundary from earlier is starting to wash out and return of southerly 10-15kt inflow is likely around midnight over the area. HR...
by jeff
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later
Replies: 1801
Views: 1035452

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

I'd watch this one (90L). Ensembles are slightly more bullish and more north than most of the operational runs. Fairly confident we will see at least a tropical storm in the Gulf this time next week. Would not rule out a hurricane.
by jeff
Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month
Replies: 510
Views: 275784

Re: January 2017 - Arctic Cold Front/Hard Freeze Warning

It's a chilly 19 degrees here!! Brrrr. Coldest morning in many years. That'll zap a lot of plants for sure!! Unfortunately that's cold enough to kill a lot of zone 9 plants. We were not prepared for temps quite this cold. Yes, Jeff, those few degrees DO make a big difference to gardeners and the ne...
by jeff
Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 267430

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Gaston & INVEST 99L

Ridging...ridging...ridging! The more and stronger ridging...the more west it will go. Ensembles were showing this yesterday and the ops runs are now showing this today. Use the upper air pattern and the ensembles and don't focus on the flip flopping operational runs. Starting to see some decent tra...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 267430

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

Models responding to the synoptic scale pattern of strong ridging showing more and more leftward trending. Ensembles have been split between a west track into the Gulf and N track toward the SE US coast over the last 48 hours. It is becoming clear that the leftward track is increasingly the more lik...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:31 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 267430

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of t...
by jeff
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 267430

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TD Fiona, TD #7 & INVEST 99L

A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of th...
by jeff
Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: Tracking the Tropics:
Replies: 511
Views: 267430

Re: Tracking the Tropics: TS Fiona, Invest 99L & Invest 90L

A lot of ridging along the US east coast forecasted in all the long range models being forced by upstream central US trough. Pattern favors E US ridge...note the drought conditions over the NE US. Will likely see extended range model tracks bend more left with time. Big question is when if at all do...
by jeff
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Hurricane Central
Topic: TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche
Replies: 84
Views: 51766

Re: INVEST 97L: Strong Tropical Disturbance: Central Atlanti

CMC 983mb hurricane into NE MX, GFS has a 1009mb low heading for S TX, and the EURO shows an open wave into the WC Gulf. Something to watch, but not be alarmed about.
by jeff
Sun May 01, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May
Replies: 596
Views: 263713

Re: May 2016: Unsettled Weather Through Tuesday Then Drier

still a good cap to overcome. Never turn your back on a boundary in a tropical air mass...but capping continues to hold convection down. Vis satellite shows increasing breaks...but not sure we will be able to break the cap. Meso guidance not very excited about convection.
by jeff
Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather
Replies: 689
Views: 323124

Re: April 2016 - Severe WX/Excessive Rainfall Threat This We

Several meso models really blast the area overnight with a W to E training line. Tremendous rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hr on top of wet grounds equals a dangerous flash flood setup.

I stress....Turn Around Don't Drown. We must make a strong effort to prevent flood fatalities in vehicles.
by jeff
Thu Apr 14, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather
Replies: 689
Views: 323124

Re: April 2016 - Split Flow With Increasing Rain Chances

Pattern setup this weekend into early next week is getting concerning with respect to heavy rainfall and flash flooding. 00Z GFS crushes the area with rainfall late Sunday-early Tuesday showing 9.23 inches at IAH. I would not believe this amount nor this run...but the overall consensus is big rains ...
by jeff
Mon Mar 07, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month
Replies: 395
Views: 183962

Re: March 2016 - Enhanced Severe WX Threat. Heavy Rain Possi

10 inches or more in parts of Harris County is possible. I'm thinking widespread amounts in the 4-6 inch range Tue-Thu. Peak rainfall in the county could top 10". Wednesday is not going to be a pleasant weather day. Careful on the roadways, there will be flooding. Rainfall of that magnitude in...
by jeff
Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:27 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: SE Texas Severe WX Awareness Week/Feb 28th -Mar 5th
Replies: 8
Views: 7201

Re: SE Texas Severe WX Awareness Week/Feb 28th -Mar 5th

Speaking of severe weather, this may interest folks...especially those in flood zones. http://www.texastribune.org/events/2016/03/03/protecting-houston-before-the-next-big-storm How do you have a discussion of hurricane impacts with a panel of non-meteorologists. It certainly does not take a TC to ...
by jeff
Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:34 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook
Replies: 385
Views: 191257

Re: January 2016: Chilly & Unsettled Pattern Ahead

Canadian gets nasty in days 1-15...Canadian cold then the Euro again cold but now colder then Canadian 11-16???? It's obvious the warming in the attic leading to blocking and BAMM! My question is, because I can only understand so much, is how cold do we get? I mean it looks pretty dang cold and sti...
by jeff
Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:00 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook
Replies: 385
Views: 191257

Re: January 2016: Chilly/Wet New Years Weekend Possible

The simple answer to your first question is yes...if snow is still widespread and on the ground over NW TX come late week, but I think that may be a stretch since daytime temperatures will be above freezing the next few days. Two: models may or may not fully grasp snow cover on the ground and the im...
by jeff
Wed Dec 23, 2015 9:22 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record
Replies: 355
Views: 170844

Re: December 2015 - Wet & Stormy Christmas Holidays Likely

The weather really blows right now. The weeds in my yard are going crazy and the mosquitoes are biting and I'm being forced to keep the air conditioner running. I hope we get some kind of arctic transition to take hold and soon. The cold is coming...Sunday is the transition day from summer to winte...
by jeff
Sat Dec 19, 2015 6:58 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record
Replies: 355
Views: 170844

Re: December 2015 - Christmas Weather/Big Storm Lurking?

Models continue to support very impressive moisture levels once again across the area both early next week and toward the end of next week and next weekend. PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches in mid to late December is almost unheard of...in other words summer time moisture with winter time dynamics. This is a f...
by jeff
Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy
Replies: 303
Views: 149941

Re: November 2015: Powerful Storm/Severe WX Possible Early W

After a week of hyping tornadoes, severe wind and possibly hail this thing blows in like a lamb for most of us. Not even a clap of thunder here on the NW side of Houston. Biggest issue appears to have been capping from the SW which several of the high resolution models were indicating. Capping was ...