Search found 1471 matches

by Scott747
Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:42 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

So here's the bad news as everyone wakes up this morning.... 6z GFS continues its rather substantial w trend with a large cat 3/4 about 200 mi e and s of Matagorda and Cameron moving n and making landfall just e of Cameron. Here's the good news - It's still in the 10 day range and almost guaranteed ...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:59 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

0z GFS continues to trend w ever so slightly. Comes off the YP again n of Merida and gets just w of Grand Isle before crawling in the central gulf through hr 213. Windfield is off the charts. Coastal flooding would be an issue for the upper texas coast even with it that far away. Slow movement nnw a...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

18z GFS is way w midway through the run.... Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165. Ends up getting about as far w as Grand Isle before drifting n towards the missip mouth. Landfall is similar to 12z as it scoots ne and near Pensacola. Still not seeing anything that would concern our area. Missin...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:45 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

18z GFS is way w midway through the run....

Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165.
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:46 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there w...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:38 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

6z Euro had a small shift w on the mid range. The disturbance is still quite far s and essentially beginning to crash into SA before it's supposed to begin lifting wnw, so I think there will continue to be subtle adjustments w through the Caribbean. However, we're getting into a window that there wo...
by Scott747
Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker bu...
by Scott747
Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:55 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

Lack of organization could allow 98l to get a little further w into the Caribbean. But for now there is fairly good consensus on the trough picking it up before moving any further w once it nears the gulf. 18z had the trough dig a little deeper but it wasn't as strong and eroded a little quicker but...
by Scott747
Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:27 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: October 2022
Replies: 361
Views: 18828

Re: October 2022

Hard to imagine imagine a system from the deep tropics making it this far considering the time of year but there certainly growing model support for a significant system in the nw Caribbean late in September with long term track up in the air.
by Scott747
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 28916

Re: September 2022

It's not called the 'crazy uncle' for nothing. Huge shift to the right with the Canadian and more realistic with the other guidance.