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Euro has been slowly 'caving' to the gfs and canadian with whatever vorticity there is more towards the central/southern edge of the axis. 12z is around Matagorda Bay with some rain s of 10 and into centex. Currently looking like the best possible outcome. Only glimmer of hope is that both the Euro ...

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary. It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z. Where site are you using? Hard to find a view larg...

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.

0z Euro changes things up a little. Big shift n before it enters the Gom and then moves due w near New Orleans and across La. into Beaumont with some decent vorticity but not fully organized.

Well the long range 0z gfs is going to end up entertaining with that setup.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-launches-new-hurricane-forecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to NOAA’s existing hurricane models. HAFS is as good as NOAA’s existing h...

They typically won't make this an invest this early but it would sure be nice if they would. I'm very curious on what the new HAFS (which became the operational hurricane model in late June) shows.

I touched on it last year....

thats a pretty large development zone Well of course it is. That's exactly what the modeling has been showing so far with different focal points up and down the axis as it enters the GoM. Until today Euro was on the northern end and the gfs and canadian on the southern end. Steering as of now seems...

18z gfs is at least a little similar to the 6z run. Still behaves more like an axis/disturbance as it tries to develop as it approaches the lower and middle texas coast where it would at least give them some relief. More likely some overrunning clouds and a few sprinkle for coastal counties s of 10....

Probably the 'strongest' run yet by the 6z GFS. Looks to briefly try and close off into a weak and disorganized depression as it nears the mid to lower Texas coast early next week. 0z Euro was further n with a disorganized mess and decent rain totals for the upper and mid Texas coast. Probably a day...