Search found 1440 matches

by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:14 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

I wonder who is on the desk tonight for this advisory.

Was probably a fun one to write up. :)
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Generally there is no sense in checking modeling this close to landfall but with how this storm has behaved and how the GFS has anticipated some of the reformations. Here we go... 12z GFS tries on last reformation to the ne but doesn't quite pull it off. It does pull it further ne through landfall ...
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:03 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

TXWeatherMan wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:47 pm
Anybody have the 12z Euro?
Matagorda Bay. But it initialized at the center from earlier this morning and is looking a little to far w.
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:16 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Generally there is no sense in checking modeling this close to landfall but with how this storm has behaved and how the GFS has anticipated some of the reformations. Here we go... 12z GFS tries on last reformation to the ne but doesn't quite pull it off. It does pull it further ne through landfall a...
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:48 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Surfside will be under water in a few hours. Surprised they haven't already shut it down at 523 by now.
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:21 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Well early into the recon mission and Nicholas is a mess. The original center is quite weak and the area to the ne i've been tracking is attempting to build a core. At least with recon in there we will have an idea in an hour or so.
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:54 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Gradual pressure falls as recon heads towards the area I think where it could be trying to reform or the original circulation is at least being tugged that way towards the stronger convection as Andrew mentioned.

Also a few obs at flight level around 60 kts.
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:00 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself. :) Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10. Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3...
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:26 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

Storm still seems off to me...

Anyways recon is finally headed towards the storm and will alleviate whatever I think I'm seeing.

Fwiw both hurricane models had a fairly decent shift up the coast being this close to landfall. HWRF shows a reformation like the GFS.
by Scott747
Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:22 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Replies: 1416
Views: 66160

Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat

For a minute I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me and there was another center reformation to the e. Looked that way on satellite but you can still see the current center on BRO radar. But I go back to yesterday and some of the crazy pinball movements in the GFS and sure enough the 6z GFS has...