Search found 1488 matches

by Scott747
Fri Mar 15, 2024 7:31 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: March 2024
Replies: 344
Views: 11789

Re: March 2024

Try and post pics later. Lost a 35-40 ish foot oak tree that was in the front yard. Thankfully it cleanly missed the house. But snagged two of the cars in the driveway that weren't in the garage.
by Scott747
Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2024
Replies: 1566
Views: 90871

Re: January 2024

Left to play some disc golf at Shadow Creek in sweats, long sleeve shirt and my Aggie pullover with a hand warmer for good measure. Ended up in shorts and a t shirt and a breaking a solid sweat half way through. Good stuff. lol.
by Scott747
Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:33 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2024
Replies: 1566
Views: 90871

Re: January 2024

Natty futures have been on the rise for the last week or so when the models were hinting a potential outbreak. Only put part of the kids inheritance on some contracts. :) Miss the old days when there weren't so many hedge funds and banks that didn't employ traders that specifically followed longer t...
by Scott747
Thu Aug 17, 2023 2:09 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Euro has been slowly 'caving' to the gfs and canadian with whatever vorticity there is more towards the central/southern edge of the axis. 12z is around Matagorda Bay with some rain s of 10 and into centex. Currently looking like the best possible outcome. Only glimmer of hope is that both the Euro ...
by Scott747
Wed Aug 16, 2023 5:17 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary. It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z. Where site are you using? Hard to find a view larg...
by Scott747
Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:02 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.
by Scott747
Wed Aug 16, 2023 2:08 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

0z Euro changes things up a little. Big shift n before it enters the Gom and then moves due w near New Orleans and across La. into Beaumont with some decent vorticity but not fully organized.
by Scott747
Wed Aug 16, 2023 12:32 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Well the long range 0z gfs is going to end up entertaining with that setup.
by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 8:13 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-launches-new-hurricane-forecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 showed a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to NOAA’s existing hurricane models. HAFS is as good as NOAA’s existing h...
by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

They typically won't make this an invest this early but it would sure be nice if they would. I'm very curious on what the new HAFS (which became the operational hurricane model in late June) shows.

I touched on it last year....
by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:34 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

thats a pretty large development zone Well of course it is. That's exactly what the modeling has been showing so far with different focal points up and down the axis as it enters the GoM. Until today Euro was on the northern end and the gfs and canadian on the southern end. Steering as of now seems...
by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:54 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

18z gfs is at least a little similar to the 6z run. Still behaves more like an axis/disturbance as it tries to develop as it approaches the lower and middle texas coast where it would at least give them some relief. More likely some overrunning clouds and a few sprinkle for coastal counties s of 10....
by Scott747
Tue Aug 15, 2023 6:01 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Probably the 'strongest' run yet by the 6z GFS. Looks to briefly try and close off into a weak and disorganized depression as it nears the mid to lower Texas coast early next week. 0z Euro was further n with a disorganized mess and decent rain totals for the upper and mid Texas coast. Probably a day...
by Scott747
Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Still a week out but hard to argue against the continuing model agreement for the disturbance that will be moving from the eastern GoM.

12z Euro is weaker with the reflection early on off of Florida but becomes stronger as it approaches the Texas coast.
by Scott747
Sat Aug 12, 2023 10:02 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78130

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:18 pm Yikes im seeing a few 33 celcius readings starting to show up in the gulf😬 thats about 91-92 degrees
What does that mean?
by Scott747
Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: April 2023
Replies: 562
Views: 90695

Re: April 2023

Cromagnum wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:41 pm This thunder is something else.
Echoes from the Gulf...;)
by Scott747
Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:42 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: December 2022
Replies: 1688
Views: 221666

Re: December 2022

I’m going to be taking some ITM BOIL options with a 12/16 expiration first thing tomorrow morning. I expect to make a quick buck on these. Puts or calls? I noticed one of your posts recently musing that a snap back was weather related but it was likely an organic quick rally with natty recently dow...
by Scott747
Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:42 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100304

Re: September 2022

So here's the bad news as everyone wakes up this morning.... 6z GFS continues its rather substantial w trend with a large cat 3/4 about 200 mi e and s of Matagorda and Cameron moving n and making landfall just e of Cameron. Here's the good news - It's still in the 10 day range and almost guaranteed ...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:59 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100304

Re: September 2022

0z GFS continues to trend w ever so slightly. Comes off the YP again n of Merida and gets just w of Grand Isle before crawling in the central gulf through hr 213. Windfield is off the charts. Coastal flooding would be an issue for the upper texas coast even with it that far away. Slow movement nnw a...
by Scott747
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: September 2022
Replies: 457
Views: 100304

Re: September 2022

18z GFS is way w midway through the run.... Exiting the YP near Merida around hr 165. Ends up getting about as far w as Grand Isle before drifting n towards the missip mouth. Landfall is similar to 12z as it scoots ne and near Pensacola. Still not seeing anything that would concern our area. Missin...