The sensitivity to the genesis point is huge for this forecast. Until the models figure that out, we are going to be pretty much clueless. The farther west genesis occurs, the more likely this thing heads toward TX.

Gah. How did this storm go from a quick spin up to a monsoon depression. What a mess. Hopefully y'all can get some better rains than currently modeled out of this.

The 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive today with developing a Western Gulf disturbance. We may need to keep an eye out for a quick spin up and just possibly a depression or tropical storm forming. We will see... I like the idea of a quick spin up in the Western Gulf this week, but probably a bit qui...

There's a TUTT in the channel that's going to muck things up all week. Best case scenario for a TC, imo, is a rapid spin up 12-18 hours before landfall on Thursday. I think it's more likely to remain open.

It's going to be interesting to see how this evolves. I definitely think it bears watching. Looking at the steering flow in the ensembles, there is a lot of spread. The GFS ensembles forecast the ridge to set up farther west, which would take whatever forms towards you guys. OTOH, the Euro ensemble ...

Similar setup to Alex of last year (steering current-wise), but a good bit less moisture and no circulation evident on TPW loops. I don't tend to get very excited about models predicting development 7-10 days or more out, as was the case early last week for today's "hurricane in the Gulf"...

wxmx wrote: Thanks Steve. I really hope my "experience in long range forecasts" gets stomped over... we really need the rains.

Man, they'll let anyone post here

Hopefully, the models are right in getting more moisture in the W Gulf. The large scale pattern should be in your favor.