Cloud top beginning to cool on satellite and lighting showing up in growing bands SW of Houston.

For what its worth 18Z NAM 3km was somewhat similar. to 18z HRRR

18z HRRR wants to fire up storms around rush hour in southeast harris county and then really hammers the metro area late night into tomorrow morning. HRRR has been rather consistent in firing up a band around 4 or 5 pm. We are getting close to that time and radar is showing a few hints of showers po...

Came home to walk the dog at lunch and noticed some sun poking through In the Bellaire area. We’ll see what if anything this does for destabilization.

The 3km NAM is actually doing very well right now. I posted a side by side of 11 am radar and the 12z 3km NAM simulated radar for 11 am here:

https://twitter.com/stephenuzick/status ... 76545?s=20

The circulation we had been focusing on all evening appears to have almost devolved into a small meso vortex around what is now a broader circulation right over the loop.

My view from Bellaire as the center passed overhead.
https://twitter.com/stephenuzick/status ... 98791?s=21

I am directly under the center in Bellaire. Not often I get to be in the center of a tropical cyclone.

I’m also watching to see if lightning strikes start showing up as that will be a tell tale sign of things going downhill.

Very Interesting that the center seems to almost amoeba into a new spot every so often instead a smooth movement. I noticed this earlier with it’s hard move west and I just noticed it again on the last few frames of radar.

Watching the last few frames of radar it looks like the storm just took a hard jog to the west. Maybe I've been looking at a computer screen too long today. Anyone else see it?

I am getting increasingly concerned with the potential for a core rain event. The WPC basically said as much without using those exact words. Additionally they highlighted what I thought I saw on some of the earlier meso models - a convergence zone setting up a heavy band on the south side of the ce...

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me but the center seems to be moving north quicker than I anticipated.

18z HRRR keeps the center slightly west of Houston. 8-12 inches in the metro area thru late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning Here is the total accumulated precipitation graphic through 32 hours on the 18Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh model). Keep in mind that this run ends at 1 am Thur...

18z HRRR keeps the center slightly west of Houston. 8-12 inches in the metro area thru late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning

12z Euro accumulations thru mid-day Friday

In a way this reminds me a bit of Allison, in that it developed quickly at the coast, moved inland within a few hours of being named and was a slow moving rain maker. I'm not saying we are looking at Allison type impacts, but the way it has developed thus far reminds me of that storm's development.

NHC just upgraded to TD 11

Another thing I am noticing on the Meso models (particularly the 3 KM NAM and Tx Tech) is that early Thursday morning a convergence zone sets up on the back side of the low with a band of very heavy rainfall. NAM has it across the Bay and through central/southern Harris County while Tx Tech has it j...

This is going to bust north and west of downtown Houston. Center is east of the models and models are already tending east. I respectfully disagree. If you look at the 12z NAM 3km as well as the HRRR for 16-17Z the center is located just SE of the Brazoria/Matagorda county border, which is where it...