4 PM Advisory now calls for a Cat 4 at landfall. Hurricane Warnings hoisted along the Northern Gulf Coast.

So it appears the fiber lines into NOAA in Boulder have been cut. Not sure when repairs are going to be complete, but it does seem to be impacting data assimilation throughout NOAA.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 9:50 am Srain, this system will impact you more than it will Texas.

Yeah, once again we are under the gun for remnants passing nearby. We certainly do not need any additional flooding problems here, but it's looking like we may well be dealing with Ida on Tuesday/Wednesday in the Smoky Mountains.

Communication issues have been impacting most of the National servers including the WPC since about 4 AM Eastern Time. The various missions have been flying without problems, but data has been extremely slow to the public. We'll see if the 12Z Suite of guidance has been able to ingest the G-IV data ...

Let's drop this nonsense now. Stick to weather discussions only.

RECON center passes suggests a general Westward motion for the time being.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:39 pm Recon obs suggest Ida is trying to reform even further n.

RECON in the air.

NHC intensity forecast suggests gusts to115 kts at landfall. Major Hurricane a possibility.

I’m located in Port Arthur…any thoughts on a chance for impact on my area? You are certainly not in the clear in Port Arthur. Keep very close tabs on the updates throughout the day into tomorrow. You should already have your personal Hurricane plan dusted off and I would definitely be making sure t...

What time do the HHs fly today and which model run do we think will be the first one to use that data for a clearer starting picture? They are scheduled to depart Biloxi mid day for an afternoon arrival for sampling. We likely won't see that data in the global models until the 00Z Suite of guidance...

I don't see any indication of anything at the surface at this time. The mid levels are still attempting to organize, but I believe the upper low to the N is still inhibiting 99L from organizing.

Yeah I have been following him (dating back to KTRH radio days) for 30+ years. He's a combination of weather expertise and entertainment for the uninformed. He can be a hypemaster... but when he says to evacuate the platforms, the oil companies do it. Which is expensive for them to do. And if he'd ...

Strong wording coming from the NHC this afternoon. We usually see this sort of message when a storm has already formed.

Looks like the Euro is suggesting a strengthening storm right into landfall along the SW Louisiana Coast. It is certainly suggesting a much stronger storm with the 12Z cycle.

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before Hurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal asse...

Up to 40%/80% at 7 AM.

Floater now up for 99L...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Heavy rainfall potential increases for the coming weekend into early next week...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 24, 2021 11:54 am GFS is in agreement with the Euro, oh boy

Until there is an actual center of circulation for the models to latch onto, caution is advised for anything beyond 3 to 5 days in model world.

Looking like the tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea will begin to slow down later this week as it enters the NW Caribbean. The ensembles are very bullish on lowering pressure and likely genesis by Friday. We will be in the monitoring and watching mode until tropical system actually develops, i...