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12Z HRRR rainfall totals,very tight gradient over the area.

From HGX

0Z models

18Z HWRF and HMON.

8pm update 1. Western Gulf of Mexico: An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized to...

8pm update 1. Western Gulf of Mexico: An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized to ...

The WPC just tweeted this, they mention rainfall rates could be as high as 3-4" an hour.

Yep it shows a training feeder band over the area.The HWRF and HMON also have been hinting at that.

18Z Tropical Models.Decent uptake in models showing it getting to Tropical storm status also.As previous runs of the intensity models only had one member showing intensity above a tropical depression.

Recon may have found a low level center of circulation.