Search found 1132 matches

by don
Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:26 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

18Z GFS, you can see the split of energy with the main center close to the upper Texas coast, with a separate piece of energy in Mississippi.The vorticty is also helping to rob moisture away from the main storm. Seems like whats giving the models a hard time is the split of energy that occurs betwee...
by don
Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Just spent some time reviewing some satellite loops and surface observations. Still an open trough that’s a long way from closing off. My thoughts haven’t changed on this since Saturday - a sheared mess mostly into LA and to the east… Yep, Vermilion Bay is my guess at the moment.The good news is th...
by don
Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:24 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

You can see the new area of low pressure forming to the north and east of the current center closer to the convection. I suspect the NHC will sometime today update 92L with the new position of the broad low currently forming,which should allow models to converge on a solution within the next 48 hour...
by don
Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:08 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Good update on 92L from Levi Cowan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN8U6jJ6dLI
by don
Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:16 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Models are still having a hard time determining where the main center of circulation will take form and if there will be any center relocations.Some are aimed towards the upper Texas coast while others are showing a landfall in Louisiana.Usually by this time we would have a much better idea on how e...
by don
Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:17 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

18Z GFS and EURO ensembles.
by don
Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:59 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Yep the main circulation was always supposed to reform near that region, the reason for the varying tracks over the last few days is that models have differed on exactly how far north the LLC will form. My street is flooded now....
by don
Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:42 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Interesting flare up in the BOC. What are the odds the center gets pulled more to the East under those storms? That's actually what models show happening. As a tropical wave merges with 92l from the Caribbean. That is when tc genesis is expected to happen. And a new center is expected to reform fur...
by don
Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:15 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Very heavy rain right now, at least the temps will be cooler after the rain. ;)
by don
Tue Jun 15, 2021 5:13 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche
Replies: 772
Views: 21081

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC201-152330- /O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0065.210615T2257Z-210615T2330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Severe...