Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 TXC201-291-339-131945- /O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-240513T1945Z/ Montgomery TX-Liberty TX-Harris TX- 233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CD...

Storms are getting stronger out there as they move towards SE Texas... Screenshot 2024-05-13 at 13-15-44 NWS Radar.png ww0237_overview_wou.gif BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024...

Watch coming. mcd0767.png Mesoscale Discussion 0767 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...southern Texas into southwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 131739Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...9...

IMG_0023.png IMG_0025.png IMG_0024.png South central TX to southern LA through tonight... A cluster of supercells formed this morning and is approaching areas near and south of San Antonio as of 16z. Extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg), steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer verti...

An ENHANCED risk has been issued for today.... spcd1cat.us_sc (2).png spcd1hail.us_sc (1).png spcd1wind.us_sc (1).png NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE...

0Z HRRR for tomorrow.

Tomorrow looks "fun"... LOL 👀 As supercells congeal into a potent MCS and move through our area. SPC mentions an enhanced risk may be coming. Screenshot 2024-05-12 at 14-30-42 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png Screenshot 2024-05-12 at 14-30-55 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png Screenshot 2...

Tornado watch issued.The HRRR shows more storms developing in the metro in a few hours along a warm front. ww0233_overview_wou.gif Screenshot 2024-05-12 at 13-24-47 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK...

Something to watch very closely, at least one mesoscale model in this case the WRF, suggests a really heavy rain band could set up over the city late sunday night- monday with another line of storms on tuesday, impressive totals on this model, something to watch for fwiw Edit: The 00z GFS keeps a v...

Some of the models are showing signs of supercell development in SE Texas on Monday.Main threat appears to be large hail and damaging winds.If confidence increases i wouldn't be surprised to see a upgrade to an enhanced risk eventually.

sgpcd3cat.us_sc.png Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible M...

Cromagnum wrote: ↑ Interview in NC went well today. So well that the VP gave me a verbal notice of intent to hire and said he wanted to spend his time with me to close in on an initial offer range before I traveled home. Written one will be forthcoming Monday

That's great! Wishing you the best.

Mesocale models so far are rather unimpressed with much rain down here on mothers day, HRRR, WRF and NAM models keep most of the rain on sunday to our north and east, not a lot of action across se texas Edit: Mesocales stop at sunday night after 48 hours, will see in another day what they show mond...

Today's 12Z Global Models

18Z GFS

Technically models show the corridor of disturbances further south than they did last time.For example the Euro has disturbances originating further south in South central Texas before moving east along the I-10 corridor.(FWIW) It's important to not get hung up on QPF amounts and locations in this r...

12Z global models (GFS,EURO,CANADIAN)

The wet pattern will return this weekend into next week, rainfall amounts and locations are subject to change of course. (12Z GFS VS 12Z EURO)

I'm starting to buy in more with the various forecast showing Texas being one of the hotspots this year. I am very concern with the persistent weakness that has been over the state the last month or so. The continuation of this pattern through May could cause a feedback loop, with saturated soils ov...