Search found 1406 matches

by don
Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:54 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

Looks like most of us will see some brief heavy rain with tomorrows thunderstorms( minor localized street flooding may be possible). But more rain is on the menu on Saturday once the main upper low kicks out.With a weak gulf low developing in response,we should see some widespread rain and Saturday ...
by don
Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:26 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

(Scenario 1: We end up with a single squall line or MCS that moves in and out of the area with the frontal passage,decreasing rainfall amounts substantially.)
Scenario one seems to be the winner.Some localized street flooding may be an issue for some,but nothing more than that.
by don
Sat Nov 20, 2021 11:32 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

What a complete bust lol Can't really call it bust if it's not in the forecast yet.As the weather speculation around Thanksgiving has been based on model data,and not a forecast.The conservative forecast the NWS has at the moment looks good to me at this time. We'll have more clarity over the next ...
by don
Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:39 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

I don't think were going to get into the 30s anymore looking more like the front is going to wash out over the gulf.And with the placement of the main trough to the east of us.There will only be pacific air to tap into. Its looking more mild now with highs in the 50s/60s lows in the 40s.Same temps a...
by don
Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:43 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

From HGX afternoon discussion : https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HGX&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]... The cold front should be moving through North Texas around sunrise and pushing quickly southeast with the increasing westerl...
by don
Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

Models are still trying to figure out the strength and speed of the cutoff low.Some models runs have been much more progressive and weaker with the system,while other runs show a deeper and slower system. Of course the model inconsistency is expected in this range.But there seems to be two possible ...
by don
Thu Nov 18, 2021 4:58 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

HGX mentioning in the afternoon discussion today that a significant weather event is possible next Thanksgiving/Black Friday. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... Dry zonal flow will be giving way late Saturday as an upper trough moves through the Plains. This will keep the onshore flow going S...
by don
Thu Nov 18, 2021 11:28 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

Wouldn’t really call 30’s for lows and 50’s for highs a bust in November but maybe that’s just me. Yep its still going to be cold,but some of us have to remember that were in southeast Texas and its only November LOL.Theirs limits to how cold the air can get this time of year.The big arctic outbrea...
by don
Thu Nov 18, 2021 11:17 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

12Z GFS still continuing to show very heavy rain on Thanksgiving/Black Friday in southeast Texas.With cyclogenisis forming a surface low over the area enhancing rainfall. As models are showing a potent cut off low moving over the state,which is what triggers the surface reflection over southeast Tex...
by don
Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:12 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: November 2021
Replies: 305
Views: 14972

Re: November 2021

I'm not seeing anything suggesting more than a normal front we would normally get this time of year.With highs in the 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s for a couple of days.Northern counties may get close to freezing though. The bigger story for us is that Thanksgiving may end up being a complete...