This is a touch concerning.... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/16...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF ISAAC RETREATS WESTWARD AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LIFTS NORTHWARD...ISAAC WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTE...

New advisory nudges it west. TX not yet included. Hurricane Watches issued for the northern gulf. Winds 65 mph, moving NW at 18 mph. Sorry, don't know how to attach the path on here.

TexasBreeze wrote:NHC doesn't make track/wind forecast changes with intermediate advisories.

Ah ok. Wasn't sure whether this one was intermediate or not. Thanks.

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 200 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 ...CENTER OF ISAAC MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMAT...

New advisory out. No changes to track. No changes at all actually. I believe they're waiting on the hurricane hunters.

Scott747 wrote:

wxman666 wrote:Does anyone remember what Hurricane Wilma's (2005) lowest pressure was? I know that broke the record. I think it was below 900 wasn't it?

882 but was probably a few mb's lower as it was still intensifying when recon left.

Jeez. Thanks Scott747. Well, a few minutes to go before the NHC 1 AM.

Does anyone remember what Hurricane Wilma's (2005) lowest pressure was? I know that broke the record. I think it was below 900 wasn't it?

biggerbyte wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:For what it's worth, the Canadian suggests Houma/Morgan City...984mb...

That is only 288 miles away from Porter.

And the wind field (attm) is 205 miles outward from the center.

It's the "hurry up and wait" game in storm chasing lingo. The most boring part of a severe weather outbreak...oh the anticipation.

The 12Z Canadian suggests the same... :mrgreen: Are the models being bullish or could this actually materialize? It has been suggested by the models for the past couple of days. Will it materialize? That remains to be seen. My hunch is the mountains near Monterrey may well see snowfall and perhaps ...

srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Canadian suggests the same...

Are the models being bullish or could this actually materialize?

Meanwhile, HGX seems to be frustrated and at a loss on the late week forecast for this week. Hopefully we'll see some better model agreement tomorrow. Even SPC sounds wishy washy, yet somehow confident at the same time. What a mess!

Severe Thunderstorm Warning SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING TXC015-089-157-185-201-339-473-477-181030- /O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0031.120218T0957Z-120218T1030Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 357 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012 THE NATIONAL WE...

Been getting off and on ice pellets here in Cypress. Melting on contact. Hopefully it stays that way so we can avoid slippery bridges.

4-8 Day Outlook Update from SPC: ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 091000 SPC AC 091000 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012 VALID 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z/9TH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE P...

Regarding my last post to Ed: From the Storm Prediction Center: "EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP BY AROUND DAYS 7/8 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS/MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT T...

Canadian is wet enough Friday, but Easterly winds, and a 6 to 8ºC 850 mb temp doesn't just scream "fun-derstorms" at me. Nor does the Euro. GFS depresses with monotonous languor. Howdy Ed, what are your thoughts on the Tuesday/Wednesday system? Both SPC and HGX seem to think it'll be pret...

Any further info on the severe wx dynamics for Friday?

Anyone have an idea on why SPC is holding off on that watch?

Mesoscale Discussion 63 - Watch Unlikely. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0063.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 241828Z - 242030Z RAPID WARM A...