Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:48 pm Ensembles are starting to trend much wetter for us. Looks pretty promising!

Yeah i not buying it until i see rain falling from the sky this may just well be another Lucy and the football.

I think this disturbance is going to get shoved into mexico, looking at the ensembles, they have a ridge building into the eastern GOM, not going to allow this system to get that far north, I know I said its too early, but I don’t like that ridge in the eastern GOM, this spells big time shafted aga...

Does anyone know what models are the NHC using to base this potential development on?

Kinda surprised they lemoned it with a 20 this far out even though the gfs doesn't show much except a surge of moisture. Would be more beneficial without any development anyways. Seems like it has growing ensemble support. The potential NNW movement is intriguing. Yeah that NNW movement got my atte...

Fall has made an appearance this weekend in the Smoky Mountains. Our morning temperatures in the high valleys have been in the low to mid 50's with higher elevations around 5K and above in the 40’s. My high temperature yesterday and today were in the mid 70's. Starting to see some early leaf colors...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:52 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:18 am You gotta be kidding me! NWS sliced my 80% chance of rain today in HALF down to 40%. How does that happen in one update? Wow. Just wow. Talk about feeling jilted at the altar!!

The writing was on the table yesterday. Better chances south of I-10.

That would be us.

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:59 am Agree with that. Guess we all have become accustomed to big starts and seeing things struggle is surprising. A certain 'A' storm didn't form till August in 1992 and see what that did.

Yeah Andrew was a bad one.

I picked up 1.10 inches and have high probabilities for rain the next 3 days.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:30 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:18 pm Im sure the latest GFS might make a few folks happy medium-long range sure is looking great!!!

I think most (if not all) of us are tired of getting hood-winked.
I'll believe it when I see wet stuff falling from the sky.

I don't even trust the radar anymore.

I feel the same way.

I just got .75 inches that with another .50 i got a few days ago gives me 1.25 inches for the week Yay.

I'm gonna be glad when July is gone August may not be much better but at least we are one month closer to Fall

I picked up a half inch around 5pm.

We peaked at 104° out here in the boonies. That’s just going by what The Weather Channel app says. I don’t have a thermometer here. When I check other places on that app it’s usually a few degrees cooler than what you guys are reporting at your location so it could be warmer here too I suppose. I p...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 10, 2022 12:31 pm Knowing the Euro, wouldn’t be surprised if last nights run was a troll run, bet it shifts back into Louisiana on the 12z run lol

You are probably right.

My weather station is reading 104 degrees this place is a sinking hell hole.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:54 am All models are now on board that the ridge will back off to the west and allow a back door front to move in next week and stall out, leading to daily appreciable rain chances! Looks like a pattern change is coming!

I'm not falling for it,i'll believe it when i see it falling from the sky.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:17 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:15 pm I just checked the NWS website and we are under a flood warning through Friday.

That would be a Flood Watch, not a Warning.

I stand corrected thanks

I just checked the NWS website and we are under a flood warning through Friday.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:23 am

I loathe Summer. Such a worthless season.

Yeah if a genie gave me 3 wishes i would use one to get rid of Summer.

The 12Z GFS has shifted to the north with the system in the east Atlantic bringing it into the southern GOM.