This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jun 17, 2025 7:44 pm There's some disgreement among models and ensembles, but I'll take some freshly squeezed lemonade for late June.

Let's hope for it.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed, except for Region 3.4. Region 3.4 remains the same.

Be thankful for the rain.

Cpv17 yup, at the very least i think we get a surge of moisture from this, but given some places in se texas saw 6-15 inches of rain last night from the storms, the grounds will be saturated, if we get even a weak sloppy sheared system to go in even in south texas, that would still spread heavy rai...

Drought ravaged Central Texas got heavy rain last night. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HYD&issuedby=EWX 014 SXUS54 KFWR 121559 HYDEWX Rainfall Reports for the Austin / San Antonio Hydrologic Service Area National Weather Service...West Gulf RFC...Fort Worth, TX 10...

Keep in mind though, quieter doesnt also necessarily a good thing, some of the most damaging hurricanes on record have occured in less active seasons in the atlantic, ill also point out that the gulf is well on its way to having record breaking upper ocean heat content energy, so thats something to...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 11, 2025 8:44 pm 00z HRRR with a max bullseye of 20-25 inches in fort bend county, that would be absolutely devastating

If the HRRR forecast pans out, that would be a disaster.

Completely agree. The June 1899 Tropical Storm dumped heavy rain over a large area. Up to 33 inches of rain fell, including 24 inches in 24 hours at Hearne. It is likely higher rainfall amounts fell, possibly 50 inches and higher. I would not be surprised if some areas in the 1899 event got up to 4...

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 10, 2025 8:51 pm Wouldn’t be surprised to see FFW’s issued tommorow as a very slow moving upper low lingers in texas through friday, HRRR shows significant rains right across the heart of downtown

The forecast model has a foot of rain falling. That would lead to flooding.

Yep, too much wind shear. They are more rain events. Think Allison in 1989 and 2001 or 1899 Tropical Storm. Completely agree. The June 1899 Tropical Storm dumped heavy rain over a large area. Up to 33 inches of rain fell, including 24 inches in 24 hours at Hearne. It is likely higher rainfall amoun...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed.

The SST’s in the Gulf are quite a bit above normal. I feel like we will eventually have a storm to track in the Gulf within the next couple weeks, but I expect it to be on the weak side. Early storms in June are generally weak. Yep, too much wind shear. They are more rain events. Think Allison in 1...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 10:28 pm

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 10:09 pm It is the start of the season. It is heating up.

The SST’s in the Gulf are quite a bit above normal. I feel like we will eventually have a storm to track in the Gulf within the next couple weeks, but I expect it to be on the weak side.

Early storms in June are generally weak.

It is the start of the season. It is heating up.

Looks like more rain could be coming. They could fizzle out.

Some interesting analogs about this summer ( july-september) being talked about on social media ( x) im hearing some folks talk about this summer looking similar to 2021 when we had a cooler and wetter summer here, some of the climate models, especially the NMME really keep july- september on the c...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 02, 2025 8:01 pm This is a REALLY cool site that gives you retro-themed local weather data. Free.

https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/

Like the nostalgia.

Hmmmmmmmmm................... More thunderstorms. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KHGX_loop.gif https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=HGX&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC313-020345- /O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0106.250602T0313Z-250602T0345Z/ BULLE...