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I would not be surprised if we have Arlene come morning.

Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico.





There is a remote chance of it developing.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑

Tue May 30, 2023 4:11 pm

CPC sees a heavy rain event similar to what the GFS is thinking in the 6-10th timeframe, houston is right on the edge of it
Gotta just watch the trends

Keep an eye on the forecast.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 cooled.

I don't see any Death Ridge setup (above normal 500mb height anomalies) until at least June 6, and that's only on GFS. A good chance of troughs until then. NW flow aloft on ensembles and models for the foreseeable future. At least it will be relatively pleasant. We could use some significant rain s...

Iceresistance wrote: ↑

Wed May 24, 2023 6:40 am

Today's daily SOI is even lower at -64.63!

That is really low. I think a strong El Nino is likely. How strong? Anyone's guess.

The low SOI could suggest it maybe a strong El Nino is coming.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 remains the same. Region 4 warmed.

This Week's ENSO (5/15/2023)
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 2.4ºC

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 5#p3023105

Region 1+2 and 4 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed.

It seems like late May is wetter. I ran a statistical analysis of May rainfall from 1970 to 2022 at Bush Intercontinental Airport May 1-14 Mean: 0.17 95% Confidence Interval Lower: 0.13 Upper: 0.20 Standard Deviation: 0.51 Wettest: 5.10 (5/3/1981) May 15-31 Mean: 0.18 95% Confidence Interval Lower: ...