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by Ptarmigan
Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:50 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: ENSO Updates
Replies: 905
Views: 702821

Re: ENSO Updates

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.2ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 remain the same. Region 4 warmed.
by Ptarmigan
Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:42 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2024
Replies: 101
Views: 8077

Re: July 2024

I rather have low 90s and chance of rain than last summer or summer 2011.
by Ptarmigan
Thu Jul 11, 2024 8:43 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2024
Replies: 101
Views: 8077

Re: July 2024

Active day today, and that could be the general theme for the next few weeks, with possibly more widespread activity next week, all of the global guidance indicates a large weakness in the ridge will develop in the central plains next week, allowing for a weak backdoor front to move in and stall ou...
by Ptarmigan
Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:43 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

I wonder if they might upgrade Beryl to high end Category 1 to even Category 2 hurricane.
by Ptarmigan
Tue Jul 09, 2024 9:53 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: ENSO Updates
Replies: 905
Views: 702821

Re: ENSO Updates

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.
by Ptarmigan
Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:58 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Where are you located? Glad somebody got power back. I'm temporarily staying in Bay City at the moment. I just checked the centerpoint outage numbers i haven't seen outages this bad since Ike. a.PNG Pretty much similar just different part of Houston. Ike was supposed to take the track Beryl did but...
by Ptarmigan
Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Hurricane Beryl packed a punch for a Category 1 hurricane.
by Ptarmigan
Sun Jul 07, 2024 11:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Not surprised.
by Ptarmigan
Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:49 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Andrew wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:44 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:43 pm I would not be surprised if Beryl is already a hurricane by now.
Agreed, nhc is waiting for recon but this should have been updated on the 10pm update
I could see NHC issuing an interim advisory before 1:00 AM indicating Beryl is a hurricane.
by Ptarmigan
Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:43 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

I would not be surprised if Beryl is already a hurricane by now.
by Ptarmigan
Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:36 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Hurricane Warning issued. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=HGX&wwa=hurricane%20warning Beryl Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38 National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL022024 1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 TXZ236-081115- /O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1002.000000T0000Z-0...
by Ptarmigan
Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Tx2005 wrote: Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:58 pm I know this is likely a dumb question, but the only other storm I've experienced at home is Ike, also in the Humble area. Any thoughts on what we should expect up here compared to Ike?
Ike was a larger hurricane compared to Beryl. I do not expect prolonged hurricane force winds.
by Ptarmigan
Sun Jul 07, 2024 8:29 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Most recent NWS Houston Doppler radar loop.
Image
by Ptarmigan
Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:47 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Most recent satellite image of Beryl.

Image

Don't let your guards down yet.
by Ptarmigan
Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:12 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

A strengthening Cat 2 at landfall, IMO is worse than a weakening Cat 3 It depends. Katrina was a weakening 3 --> 2 at LANDfall. But she had been a 5 and was massive. Katrina snowplowed huge volumes of the Gulf into Lake Pontchartrain and East Bernard Parish. Anyway, a strengthening Beryl could be m...
by Ptarmigan
Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:11 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Night is coming and hurricanes can undergo intensification at night.
by Ptarmigan
Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:37 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: July 2024
Replies: 101
Views: 8077

Re: July 2024

There is no way Beryl is going to be another Harvey. Harvey lingered for a few days. Beryl is coming and going like Ike.
by Ptarmigan
Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:33 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Lots of folks texting me if we don’t need to worry anymore and what I think now. My reply out: About the same. I'm thinking Matagorda-Sargent. Cat 2. May make a last minute run at a major still. Depends on how quickly Beryl can rebuild its core. Really - nothing has changed since yesterday. Port La...
by Ptarmigan
Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:26 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

Humberto 2007 is a prime example of how fast things can change in 24 hours if conditions are ripe thus we need to watch Beryl closely today and tomorrow: The intensification rate in Humberto was one of the highest that has ever been observed for an initially weak tropical cyclone. It is estimated t...
by Ptarmigan
Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:36 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: Hurricane Beryl
Replies: 1688
Views: 61903

Re: Hurricane Beryl

If it's a cat 1 at landfall how many people on here are actually going to leave? I plan on staying of it's a ts or a cat 1 maybe a 2..anything at a 3 or above then I would probably leave The problem is that this is a situation where we could see rapid intensification prior to landfall. If the storm...