Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 19, 2025 8:14 pm

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Wed Mar 19, 2025 8:00 pm I already loathe Spring 2025

Changes may be coming late month.

Let's hope so.

Heat and drought suck. I’ve been trying to tell yall, that cold is nothing economically compared to the Hell that is hot and dry. F Summer always, especially when it comes early. Agreed. Heat and droughts are brutal and widespread. It is no wonder why there was a mass exodus from the Great Plains d...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.3ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed. Region 1+2 and 3 are in El Nino threshold.

Central Texas is no stranger to heavy rain and flooding. Heavy rain fell on the evening of July 16, 1987. Nearly a foot of rain fell and there was flooding. The flood is tragically known for claiming 10 young lives from Seagoville Road Baptist Church. They were on a bus and van with 43 people on boa...

Hot and cold. Then hot again.

Most of America is in a drought.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The most severe droughts are in West Texas, Central Texas, and Southern Nevada.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 1.1ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed, except for Region 4. Region 4 cooled.

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

Looks like it is trending away from La Nina. We had a hot summer in 2023 and was El Nino. Vice versa with 2011, which was La Nina.

biggerbyte wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2025 8:54 pm Winter is not over, folks.

As Yogi Berra says, "It ain't over till it's over.".

Freezing weather forecasting has many uncertainties like hurricanes. It got colder than forecasted.

On the "We'll see" front next winter could be an El Niño one with an active SJT and less of a chance of arctic incursions. You know know, though. I’m not too big on El Niño winters. They’ve been pretty blah lately. I prefer the weak Niña winters. Depends on what kind of El Nino. A weak to...

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather! Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s s...

Maybe another freeze?

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:51 am man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

It would be cool to see single digits in Houston.

I wonder if next winter will be cold. February and December 1989 were cold. 1989 started as La Nina and ended as Neutral.

The winter forecast keep changing. I suspect we could see a freeze. Not ruling out wintry precipitation.

Another factor in play is the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH). A positive TNH favors cold blasts. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml A positive TNH have ridging over Alaska and Gulf of America/Mexico and Atlantic. There is troughing over Eastern Canada. Ridging over Alaska is a ...

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is trending downwards. A negative AO tends to favor cold blasts.