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To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA. If it doesn't track a little further west landfall could occur tomorrow around midday. With that said, the storm is expected to...

To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA. If it doesn't track a little further west landfall could occur tomorrow around midday. With that said, the storm is expected to...

Model trends even this late and current storm movement is concerning for New Orleans. Really need the storm to adjust back to the w to avoid 'testing' the levee and drainage improvements after Katrina. Plus the latest recon fixes with current satellite data indicate more of a NW-NNW movement which ...

Unfortunately, Ida has remained just east of the NHC track for most of today so more significant impacts to New Orleans are more and more likely. The symmetry of the storm is starting to improve too with colder cloud tops surrounding the emerging eye.

It looks like the impacts from Cuba are still being felt by Ida some right now. A little bit of good news for Lousiana but I suspect a category 3 is still more likely than not as environmental conditions and SSTs remain very favorable. At this point, time will likely be the only limiting factor.

It's amazing how far inland the hurricane warnings are. Also amazing that in a little less than 24 hours we are expected to have a major hurricane on our hands when the system is currently a weak category one. Unfortunately, as cromagnum mentioned I hope everyone across the state is prepared for th...

Scott747 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:44 am 0z Euro wasn't a large shift w but wasn't exactly small either. Not meaningful enough for any concern as most of the globals are still right around Vermillion Bay, including both hurricane models.

A pretty noticeable slowdown as it approaches the coast. Something to monitor for sure.

00Z GFS coming in further west through 42 hours which is to be expected. It has been the easterly outlier for the most part over the last couple of days. If the general movement holds up it should make landfall just east of Vermillion Bay. Edit: looks like landfall near Morgan City and pretty much r...

Just as an FYI the 00Z ICON has stronger ridging over the SE United States with a west shift for landfall. Something to keep track of to see if other models pick up on it too.

Back on topic or vacations will be handed out.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:33 pm RECON center passes suggests a general Westward motion for the time being.

Looking at environmental conditions across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, there isn't much that will prevent this system from becoming a major hurricane. SSTs are more than favorable, anticyclonic flow will set up over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and deep moisture fetch from Central America will f...

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:37 pm Recon is finding stronger obs on the eastern pass which isn't too surprising. Should come out with a special to officially upgrade it to Ida.

It's where the greatest vorticity is too. Looks like not much should change from the models based on recon data.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:11 pm AtascocitaWX ah they found one southeast of the convection? Now thats interesting,im beginning to wonder if models have been initiating the center too far to the north?

The Center is southwest of the strongest convection. The storm is still experiencing some light shear.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:55 pm Recon is nearing the best track 'center' and there ain't a whole lot there....

First initial past near 18N/80W. Let's see if recon passes north and then dips back south.

Looks to me the LLC has more of a westerly movement than north right now A weak LLC remains south of the primary convection with the MLC further north near the convection west of Jamaica. That part of the storm continues to track to the WNW/ NW. Models continue to show that the MLC will eventually ...

The 12Z ECMWF is a little faster with TD Nine and a tad weaker. Makes it a little further west which would be a better solution compared to the GFS for NOLA region

GFS with another sizeable jump east with a landfall now near New Orleans.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:55 am Models haven’t done well this far out all year, Friday night will be the telling point

Possibly, but when you have this much agreement in track, landfall, and intensity it's hard to ignore. Today (Thursday) should provide additional insights once recon data is collected.

Euro is 959 into Vermilion Bay. Unbelievable consensus from the globals for an invest.... HWRF ends up at 931 at the border. It is incredible how quickly the consensus has grown. We are still approximately 100 hours out and we still don't have a formed center, but it does allow those along the Texa...

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