ECMWF has shifted north and east and is similar so far to the GFS.

Sizable shift s on the 0z HWRF Large shift SW. It does seem like it takes a more realistic track across the Carribean and doesn't immediately track NNW across Cuba. Then again, it could be having trouble detecting the weakness across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a shortwave trough tracks west. Yea...

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred m...

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:52 am Sizable shift s on the 0z HWRF

Large shift SW. It does seem like it takes a more realistic track across the Carribean and doesn't immediately track NNW across Cuba. Then again, it could be having trouble detecting the weakness across the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as a shortwave trough tracks west.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:28 am Andrew I lived in a desert for 2 years, dry spells definitely are not welcomed here lol

I understand that, but having a hurricane blow through the community similar to Ike does a ton of damage to property and is a huge threat to life. It's not like we are in a huge drought across the region.

The GFS continues to show another tropical system we will need to monitor for the first week of September

Ukie into Marsh Island/Vermillion Bay It was the last reliable model showing a westerly landfall. Amazing how quickly the models adjusted from an elongated low developing along the coast of Central America to one developing southwest of Jamaica and tracking north/northwest. We went from a Mexico la...

All i can say is i hope we get some rain this week, this current hot weather pattern can take a hike, this heat make me feel so tired, mother nature is a bi*ch sometimes lol Scattered rain chances are expected over the next couple of days. Overall, this summer has been pretty wet and I would much r...

GEFS has good consolidation and agreement on a Vermillion Bay landfall now.

CMC with a jump east.

00Z GEFS members are a good bit north compared to the 18Z run with most of them crossing Cuba.

00Z GFS shows stronger ridging so a little further west. Models are zoning in on the Vermillion Bay region

Beginning to get good curvature. Still looks like the vorticity is stretched but not near as much as earlier with an area around 14.5 or further up s of Jamaica where it could consolidate as it moves wnw. Hard to zero in at night... Before sunset it did look loosely organized on visible satellite a...

00Z GFS even faster and further east this run so far.

18Z ECMWF a little further east through the 90hr run but nothing significantly different.

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS... And they are on the same team! :D May have spoke too soon. Ha. HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana. Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z s...

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS... And they are on the same team! :D May have spoke too soon. Ha. HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana. Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z s...

GEFS with a pretty big shift east too. A continued complicated setup with a “more than we’d like to see” spread, including the potential for a stall as troughing leaves and high pressure attempts to build in from the northwest. 18Z GEFS attached. The stalling on some of the southern solutions does ...

GEFS with a pretty big shift east too.

Landfall into the New Orleans region. Not a likely scenario right now, but does continue the easterly trend.