Search found 3375 matches
- Sun Sep 08, 2024 11:03 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Tropical Storm Francine
- Replies: 72
- Views: 18596
Re: Invest 91L
GFS is showing a more favorable environment over the next couple of days across the Western Gulf of Mexico. A major is definitely not out of the realm of possibility but still seems unlikely at this point.
- Sat Sep 07, 2024 10:21 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Tropical Storm Francine
- Replies: 72
- Views: 18596
Re: Invest 91L
Chances remain low that significant impacts will be felt inland across the immediate Houston area. Fortunately, upper-level steering paired with the layout of the Texas Coastline will make it nearly impossible for an organized system to make landfall in this area. At this point I think east of the T...
- Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:59 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
I hope everyone is doing well and did not receive much if any damage. Thank you all for the amazing conversation and support during this storm. I know hundreds if not thousands of people browse these forums looking for additional information and so many people stepped up providing wonderful analysis.
- Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:44 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
- Sun Jul 07, 2024 8:42 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Latest recon
- Sun Jul 07, 2024 8:24 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
I think the eye contracting is causing the appearance of a NNE movement. Recon should pass through here shortly and we will know
- Sun Jul 07, 2024 2:36 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Still seeing some dry air mixing into the center of circulation and that's keeping it a little more elongated. That could be some good news and delay some of the intensification.
- Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:41 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
- Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:44 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
- Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:49 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Is it possible Beryl still jogs east on landfall or is it a done deal for Matagorda area? Will strength also make a difference? General movement during landfall will be to the north or NW When will conditions start to go down hill? I gotta unload some crates with a fork lift tomorrow at 5 pm.. Sund...
- Sat Jul 06, 2024 12:12 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
For some perspective this is what the most recent GFS believes the current situation is. Obviously, satellite paints a different picture. If convection is maintained that could be a worrying sign.
- Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:54 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
What a difference a few days can make. Heck even just a day. Remember the conversations about Beryl and 95L in the gulf? It's not over.... yet. As of today.. A Tropical Storm could be on tap, but it's in such bad shape right now. Who knows. Actually developing a CDO over the last two hours. If it's...
- Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:41 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Looks like convection is trying to form near the LLC. A lot of dry air has been ingested into the system and the LLC still remains mostly naked. Conditions for development are forecasted to improve throughout the day but most models indicate significant development won't occur until that last 6-12 h...
- Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:39 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Most models indicate Monday morning is when we would start to see impacts
- Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:26 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
GFS has a one-two punch for Beryl with moderate shear expected once it enters the GOM and then plenty of dry air entrainment across the Central Gulf. These two things will need to be monitored for how quickly they can be overcomed. That will ultimately decide how quickly Beryl can intensify. Most mo...
- Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:31 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
- Thu Jul 04, 2024 5:28 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
It is, the cone does not change size. Current error rates are listed at the link belowCromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:56 pmI thought the cone was based on stats of 5 years of data and not on track confidence?MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:50 pm The cone is much larger now for potential landfalls, up to San Luis pass
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
- Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:00 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Hard to tell based on satellite but Grand Cayman radar might be showing the westward bend finally happening. Moisture is wrapping around the southwest edge of the eye too but still a lack of convection across the southern half of the storm and shear is still influencing the storm. Not much change in...
- Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:43 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Recon still shows latitude being gained.
- Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:32 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: Hurricane Beryl
- Replies: 1688
- Views: 191481
Re: Hurricane Beryl
Possible clearing of the eye