GFS is showing a more favorable environment over the next couple of days across the Western Gulf of Mexico. A major is definitely not out of the realm of possibility but still seems unlikely at this point.

Chances remain low that significant impacts will be felt inland across the immediate Houston area. Fortunately, upper-level steering paired with the layout of the Texas Coastline will make it nearly impossible for an organized system to make landfall in this area. At this point I think east of the T...

I hope everyone is doing well and did not receive much if any damage. Thank you all for the amazing conversation and support during this storm. I know hundreds if not thousands of people browse these forums looking for additional information and so many people stepped up providing wonderful analysis.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:43 pm I would not be surprised if Beryl is already a hurricane by now.

Agreed, nhc is waiting for recon but this should have been updated on the 10pm update

Latest recon

I think the eye contracting is causing the appearance of a NNE movement. Recon should pass through here shortly and we will know

Still seeing some dry air mixing into the center of circulation and that's keeping it a little more elongated. That could be some good news and delay some of the intensification.

ClearLake77 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:27 pm Where can I see the HRR?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0702&fh=10

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:38 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:32 pm 2nd recon center fix has an even sharper NW movement

Crazy. My eyes are seeing WNW. I need to back away for a bit.

Shear is still causing issues and creating these "fake" movements.

Is it possible Beryl still jogs east on landfall or is it a done deal for Matagorda area? Will strength also make a difference? General movement during landfall will be to the north or NW When will conditions start to go down hill? I gotta unload some crates with a fork lift tomorrow at 5 pm.. Sund...

For some perspective this is what the most recent GFS believes the current situation is. Obviously, satellite paints a different picture. If convection is maintained that could be a worrying sign.

What a difference a few days can make. Heck even just a day. Remember the conversations about Beryl and 95L in the gulf? It's not over.... yet. As of today.. A Tropical Storm could be on tap, but it's in such bad shape right now. Who knows. Actually developing a CDO over the last two hours. If it's...

Looks like convection is trying to form near the LLC. A lot of dry air has been ingested into the system and the LLC still remains mostly naked. Conditions for development are forecasted to improve throughout the day but most models indicate significant development won't occur until that last 6-12 h...

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:37 pm

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:46 pm Say this goes in at Corpus or a little North, when would conditions start to go downhill in the Houston Metro area?

Monday evening?

Just wanted to post this again.

Most models indicate Monday morning is when we would start to see impacts

GFS has a one-two punch for Beryl with moderate shear expected once it enters the GOM and then plenty of dry air entrainment across the Central Gulf. These two things will need to be monitored for how quickly they can be overcomed. That will ultimately decide how quickly Beryl can intensify. Most mo...

Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:08 pm West, maybe even SW.

Storm movement? That is still a mix of west and WNW

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:56 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 3:50 pm The cone is much larger now for potential landfalls, up to San Luis pass

I thought the cone was based on stats of 5 years of data and not on track confidence?

It is, the cone does not change size. Current error rates are listed at the link below

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Hard to tell based on satellite but Grand Cayman radar might be showing the westward bend finally happening. Moisture is wrapping around the southwest edge of the eye too but still a lack of convection across the southern half of the storm and shear is still influencing the storm. Not much change in...

Recon still shows latitude being gained.

Possible clearing of the eye