I don't think anyone is really taking into account the enormous amount of moisture that will stream in if that "weak" low actually does verify and meander around down there. The moisture combined with the front from the north will squeeze out some heavy downpours along the Texas Gulf Coas...

In the 12Z GFS, the storm looks like it is trapped in a padded room being chased around by rabid squirrels.

It'll be a slap in the face if that front comes in strong enough to blast everything to the south before it does any good.

Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target. Looks like it's doing the same as GFS; in this last frame at 180 hours (27/00Z) it just starts headed WNW as if it's going to make a northwest/north turn afterward. Central pressure 969 mb, by the way--a bit hard to read on that graphic. http://www.sa...

sambucol wrote:

What would that mean for the track in the GOM?

I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.

My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.

srainhoutx wrote:

Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...

Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year... Oh, I agree; didn't mean to sound like I was bashing it. It's seemed to have some track forecast issues this year but I'd say overall it's much improved over its old...

srainhoutx wrote:

12Z Canadian is at it again...

Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is.

Global models have been rather consistent in having some type of development next week in the Caribbean, possibly moving toward the Gulf. I don't know if Josh and Strat are up for it so soon, but I'm already hoping this is another chase opportunity--talk about a reality show! :) http://www.nco.ncep....

Grr. Doesn't sound like he is going to set up the BASTARD device until on location. Cory.... Thought it was ok to just set it up and work even while driving? Or is he talking about the Kestrel. Yeah it's okay to set up ahead of time. I think he's worried about the impeller on the Kestrel being used...

srainhoutx wrote:Now Met Tech can get a field test for his 'device' that will help in getting some valuable data. A team effort as always.

I sure hope so! I'm glad we've finally gotten a chance to get it into some action.

Glad he's had you to help him out! Sounds like you had him on quite a set up with that ride to Veracruz, which is good since he seemed really frazzled yesterday.

Figured I'd share this here too. Forecast through 21Z tomorrow. The model crashed after that time, so that's as far as I have. It's for novelty purposes anyway.

That rain band just doesn't want to quit. Refiring over southeastern Medina county and Bexar county, both of which were already bombed the past 24 hours.

wxman57 wrote:

Some fascinating climo. I plotted all September storms passing within 65nm of Igor's point of formation from 1851-2009. There were 13 such storms. Here's the breakdown:

Very interesting...could be a suspenseful 10 days or so then. Thanks for posting that!

San Antonio to Austin area getting pummeled. This looks set to train over the same area for quite awhile.

Got my gif script working, so here's a link to an animated gif of today's KWRF tropical run (2.3 mb in size). It starts with the 10th and runs through the 13th at random time steps since that's how my computer rolls.

http://www.sanfordlabs.com/WRF/wind.gif

Andrew wrote:

Well I am home and a lot of the city is really wet but as of now flooding looks minimal.

Latest:

Hey Andrew...which terrain background are you using in your GR?

It's been confusing that some have seen this eastern movement when it has hardly shown much evidence of it since landfall. Steady N to NNW. Otherwise by now it would have been tracking more towards Austin. In some respects a track such of that may have lessened the rain in our area with the banding...

Kelly Field in San Antonio reporting peak wind of 45 kt/52 mph.

KSKF 071724Z 02030G45KT 1/2SM R15/2200V3000FT +RA BR BKN003 OVC014 24/23 A2954 RMK AO2A PK WND 36045/1720 PRESFR SLP994 $