Wx Infinity Forums

I don't think anyone is really taking into account the enormous amount of moisture that will stream in if that "weak" low actually does verify and meander around down there. The moisture combined with the front from the north will squeeze out some heavy downpours along the Texas Gulf Coast. Just my...

In the 12Z GFS, the storm looks like it is trapped in a padded room being chased around by rabid squirrels.

It'll be a slap in the face if that front comes in strong enough to blast everything to the south before it does any good.

Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target. Looks like it's doing the same as GFS; in this last frame at 180 hours (27/00Z) it just starts headed WNW as if it's going to make a northwest/north turn afterward. Central pressure 969 mb, by the way--a bit hard to read on that graphic. http://www.sa...

sambucol wrote:

What would that mean for the track in the GOM?

I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.

My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.

srainhoutx wrote:

Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...

Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year... Oh, I agree; didn't mean to sound like I was bashing it. It's seemed to have some track forecast issues this year but I'd say overall it's much improved over its old...

srainhoutx wrote:

12Z Canadian is at it again...

Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is.

Global models have been rather consistent in having some type of development next week in the Caribbean, possibly moving toward the Gulf. I don't know if Josh and Strat are up for it so soon, but I'm already hoping this is another chase opportunity--talk about a reality show! :) http://www.nco.ncep....

Grr. Doesn't sound like he is going to set up the BASTARD device until on location. Cory.... Thought it was ok to just set it up and work even while driving? Or is he talking about the Kestrel. Yeah it's okay to set up ahead of time. I think he's worried about the impeller on the Kestrel being used...