Wouldn't be surprised if we saw our first MDT risk of the season tomorrow.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2025 3:02 pm 78 here, awful, just awful

Agreed. Maybe we get one more decent cold front…if not… no real cool down until …October?

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Feb 20, 2025 9:22 am One thing that’s pretty remarkable about this event is the gradient, when you consider that Galveston never even got to freezing.

Galveston VERY briefly reached 32.

CPC drops a high risk of hazardous temps into central texas.

WPC tagged Houston in the Heavy Snow risk. That's a first.

biggerbyte wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 5:00 pm Now that we are seeing much better model consensus, the NWS is actually lowering precipitation chances.

Go figure...

Still at 50 percent.
60 along the coast. If trends continue I’m sure you’ll see those go up

Euro may be a bit nasty below I-10 light glaze of ice along with the snow.

sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:34 am When does the EURO run?

11. Should be in range of Monday by 11:20

Indeed. I mentioned this earlier today that things are trending in the wrong direction. If this continues until two or three days out I'm digging out all of my forks. I'm going to stab this "Siberian cold front" in the boot...The NWS is still mentioning a mix of light precipitation with n...

00z EURO 500mb pattern matches closely with the GFS… not a trend you want to see…

GFS is blank again

The main message right now is that a significant winter storm is looking more likely.....

HGX

Monday Night
A slight chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 1:34 pmPete Cavlin

50 percent for an inch
70 percent for .1

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 14, 2025 1:01 pm When would the precip start if this pans out ?

Monday night

January has been below normal, will that continue into February?

Yup…. Lucy pulled the football

ICON a cold 35 degree rain
GFS takes the coastal low too far north for snow
CMC still has snow… although not as much…freezing rain for south of I-10 as well

Should start December below normal......

The models are backing off a bit on the cooler air coming in the middle of next week, trending about 8-10 degrees warmer.
The 12z Euro shows a strong cold front pushing through just after Thanksgiving, but we'll see if this continues to show up, as it's still two weeks away.