New Day 1 SPC outlook extends the hatched area for hail further south.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 1:03 pm I’m tired of seeing so many people say “oh they say it’s gonna be busy every year”. That narrative is lazy garbage and people need to educate themselves before they comment on something. Drives me crazy!

Absolutely hate it.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 11:50 am

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:06 am Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

Am I misremembering or wasnt 2023 suppose to be crazy too?

2023 was forecast to be "near normal"...Colorado State had an April forecast of 13/6/2 last year

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:14 am

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:06 am Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

ACE of 210....

Highest hurricane forecast ever put out by CSU.... Buckle up.

FWIW

"We expect that the Gulf Coast, especially the Texas Coast, will be at a higher risk for direct impacts from a tropical system this year."
Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Long-Range Expert

Yes, for about a month now.

GFS trends toward CMC solution. In Houston, highs would be in the 40s with a cold rain. Light freeze north of Houston.
Wintry Mix in North and West TX

I don’t see it happening

2-3 inches will be common on Saturday.

Up to 1.25 today. Wasn’t expecting that much

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:49 am How is the rain chance looking today? I seem to recall some models had one more round coming through.

Should see some showers between 2pm and midnight. Clears out after that with a gusty north wind.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 4:59 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 2:00 pm 14.55” was the winner between Burton and Brenham

I believe mcheer said someone would definitely get 10”+ when people started to question the strength of this system.

Not too concerned with the rainfall event to start out February just yet.

Flood Watch extended until noon tomorrow

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 1:41 pm Looks like 3-5 inches is realistic based on average of models. Doesn't look like the 10+ inches like the GFS was doomcasting the other day.

Some isolated spots will get 10+

GFS now has the heaviest rain to the north and west of Houston. We'll see what the ensembles say in about 30 minutes.

Update from Cosgrove about the system next week and potential cold into February: There is indeed a second intrusion of bitter cold shaping up now over the Upper Midwest, which should have impacts through Texas, Dixie, the Corn Belt and the Northeast. Snow will impact the Great Lakes, St. Lawrence V...

New 18z WPC map shows an increase of about an inch.
5-5.5 inches of rain through Sugar Land and the Houston metro area.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:53 am Expected Rainfall Next Week...

Expect that to go up....

Anyone see the Joe B/ weatherbell 2024 prediction? 25-30 storms